{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "kind": "conditional-house-diagnostics",
  "status": "PROVISIONAL / UNCALIBRATED",
  "sourceSnapshotId": "2026-11-03-01",
  "sourceRunId": "V0.25-R4-20261103-S20261103",
  "sourceModelVersion": "v0.25-r4",
  "asOf": "2026-11-03",
  "sourceGeneratedAt": "2026-11-03T13:32:05Z",
  "runs": 50000,
  "seed": 20261103,
  "districtCount": 435,
  "majorityThreshold": 218,
  "method": "Python Random MT19937 / Gaussian draws; shared national/state shocks and exported district residuals; common draws across scenarios; verified same-party ballots fix party control irrespective of shocks or generic-ballot shifts",
  "quantileMethod": "integer nearest rank",
  "sourceHashes": {
    "algorithm": "SHA-256 of canonical parsed JSON, UTF-8; sorted keys; whitespace independent",
    "house": "8f41d15041c1fca32826ca76da803d0ddeabe55ccd376943bb628dff5756ef58",
    "probabilityInputs": "f061bbec99ddfe0125f7342233341dd7bcccbdd22f901513b5ec54513da62681",
    "settings": "36db93011db346c100f16c9871b0a305ce03d906d05a443f53b5bdbed78765aa"
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    "genericBallotMargin": 8.3,
    "nationalSigma": 4.5,
    "stateSigma": 2,
    "official": {
      "expectedDemocraticSeats": 239.2728,
      "expectedRepublicanSeats": 195.7272,
      "democraticControlProbability": 0.8379,
      "republicanControlProbability": 0.1621,
      "democraticSeatsMedian": 238,
      "democraticSeatsP10": 212,
      "democraticSeatsP90": 268
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  "assumptions": [
    "Each generic-ballot shift changes an unconstrained district center by shift × (1 − its existing polling blend); verified same-party ballots retain their fixed party control. +/-100 encodes ballot eligibility, not a candidate vote-margin estimate.",
    "Polling, district leans, candidates, uncertainty and the shared-error settings stay fixed.",
    "All scenarios use the same random draws, so their differences reflect the specified shift.",
    "No coefficient was chosen to match VoteHub or another forecast."
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  "sourceNotes": [
    "District centers/blends: updated-site/data/house-forecast.json.",
    "District total and residual sigmas: data/house-source-export/probability-inputs.json.",
    "Shared-error settings and generic ballot: data/house-diagnostic-settings.json, copied from the identified workbook run.",
    "Seeded diagnostics use a separate random stream from the official frozen simulation; small numerical differences are expected."
  ],
  "warnings": [
    "Conditional scenarios, not a new official election forecast or a calibrated prediction.",
    "The House model and its uncertainty settings have not completed a historical backtest.",
    "The official frozen snapshot remains separate from these diagnostic reruns."
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  "underReviewDistrictIds": [],
  "settingsSource": {
    "workbookId": "13BahhidkxLmbftM0CWLNwVvVS0d3wDxM2SIQAnME6LE",
    "url": "https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13BahhidkxLmbftM0CWLNwVvVS0d3wDxM2SIQAnME6LE/edit",
    "inspectedOn": "2026-11-03",
    "genericBallotRange": "assumptions!B7",
    "nationalSigmaRange": "probability-settings!B7",
    "stateSigmaRange": "probability-settings!B8",
    "districtSigmaRange": "probability-inputs!J5:K439",
    "note": "Existing workbook settings copied for explicit conditional diagnostics. No parameter was fitted to another forecast."
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      "expectedRepublicanSeats": 209.61642,
      "analyticExpectedDemocraticSeats": 225.356784,
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