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"source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "IN-03", "horizon": 60, "reason": "special replacement or double-incumbent status lacks a dated cutoff registry" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "IN-07", "horizon": 60, "reason": "special replacement or double-incumbent status lacks a dated cutoff registry" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "KY-04", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "KY-05", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "LA-01", "horizon": 60, "reason": "jungle/runoff outcome is not a certified common D/R nominee contest at D37" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "LA-02", "horizon": 60, "reason": "jungle/runoff outcome is not a certified common D/R nominee contest at D37" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "LA-03", "horizon": 60, "reason": "jungle/runoff outcome is not a certified common D/R nominee contest at D37" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "LA-04", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "LA-05", "horizon": 60, "reason": "jungle/runoff outcome is not a certified common D/R nominee contest at D37" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "LA-06", "horizon": 60, "reason": "jungle/runoff outcome is not a certified common D/R nominee contest at D37" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "MA-01", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "MA-02", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "MA-03", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "MA-04", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "MA-05", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "MA-06", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "MA-07", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "MD-04", "horizon": 60, "reason": "missing stable nominee identity" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "ME-02", "horizon": 60, "reason": "ranked-choice outcome/first-ballot convention unresolved in replay" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "MO-08", "horizon": 60, "reason": "special replacement or double-incumbent status lacks a dated cutoff registry" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "MS-03", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "NC-03", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "NC-06", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "ND-01", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "NV-02", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "NY-01", "horizon": 60, "reason": "special replacement or double-incumbent status lacks a dated cutoff registry" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "NY-03", "horizon": 60, "reason": "special replacement or double-incumbent status lacks a dated cutoff registry" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "NY-18", "horizon": 60, "reason": "special replacement or double-incumbent status lacks a dated cutoff registry" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "NY-22", "horizon": 60, "reason": "special replacement or double-incumbent status lacks a dated cutoff registry" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "NY-26", "horizon": 60, "reason": "special replacement or double-incumbent status lacks a dated cutoff registry" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "OH-06", "horizon": 60, "reason": "special replacement or double-incumbent status lacks a dated cutoff registry" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "OK-03", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "PA-03", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "TX-01", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "TX-09", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "TX-11", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "TX-13", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "TX-19", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "TX-20", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "TX-25", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "TX-30", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "UT-02", "horizon": 60, "reason": "special replacement or double-incumbent status lacks a dated cutoff registry" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "UT-04", "horizon": 60, "reason": "special replacement or double-incumbent status lacks a dated cutoff registry" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "VT-01", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "WA-04", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" }, { "cycle": 2024, "district": "WA-09", "horizon": 60, "reason": "source excludes ordinary margin scoring" } ], "candidateIdRepairs": [ { "cycle": 2018, "district": "AZ-02", "party": "D", "oldId": "H8AZ01104", "id": "H8AZ02151", "name": "ANN KIRKPATRICK" }, { "cycle": 2018, "district": "CA-21", "party": "D", "oldId": "H6CA19113", "id": "H8CA10167", "name": "TJ COX" }, { "cycle": 2018, "district": "CA-42", "party": "R", "oldId": "H0CA42209", "id": "H2CA37023", "name": "KEN CALVERT" }, { "cycle": 2018, "district": "GA-11", "party": "D", "oldId": "H8GA11062", "id": "H8GA11054", "name": "FLYNN D BROADY JR" }, { "cycle": 2018, "district": "GA-14", "party": "R", "oldId": "H8GA14033", "id": "H0GA09030", "name": "TOM GRAVES" }, { "cycle": 2018, "district": "HI-01", "party": "D", "oldId": "H2HI02128", "id": "H8HI01234", "name": "ED CASE" }, { "cycle": 2018, "district": "HI-01", "party": "R", "oldId": "H8HI00012", "id": "H8HI0001", "name": "CAM CAVASSO" }, { "cycle": 2018, "district": "ID-01", "party": "D", "oldId": "H8ID01207", "id": "H8ID01215", "name": "CRISTINA MCNEIL" }, { "cycle": 2018, "district": "IN-06", "party": "D", "oldId": "H8IN06202", "id": "H8IN06152", "name": "JEANNINE LEE LAKE" }, { "cycle": 2018, "district": "IN-07", "party": "D", "oldId": "H8IN06194", "id": "H8IN07184", "name": "ANDRE D CARSON" }, { "cycle": 2018, "district": "KY-06", "party": "R", "oldId": "H0KY06104", "id": "H8KY02098", "name": "ANDY BARR" }, { "cycle": 2018, "district": "MD-04", "party": "R", "oldId": "H2MD08175", "id": "H4MD04071", "name": "GEORGE MCDERMOTT" }, { "cycle": 2018, "district": "MD-06", "party": "D", "oldId": "H6MD08549", "id": "H8MD06168", "name": "DAVID TRONE" }, { "cycle": 2018, "district": "MS-03", "party": "D", "oldId": "H8MS03216", "id": "H8MS03190", "name": "MICHAEL TED EVANS" }, { "cycle": 2018, "district": "NC-09", "party": "R", "oldId": "H6NC09200", "id": "H8NC09131", "name": "MARK HARRIS" }, { "cycle": 2018, "district": "NJ-08", "party": "R", "oldId": "H8NJ08080", "id": "H8NJ08072", "name": "JOHN R MUNIZ" }, { "cycle": 2018, "district": "NV-03", "party": "D", "oldId": "H6NV04020", "id": "H8NV03200", "name": "SUSIE LEE" }, { "cycle": 2018, "district": "NV-03", "party": "R", "oldId": "H2NV04045", "id": "H8NV03275", "name": "DANNY TARKANIAN" }, { "cycle": 2018, "district": "OH-09", "party": "R", "oldId": "H2OH09122", "id": "H8OH09111", "name": "STEVEN W KRAUS" }, { "cycle": 2018, "district": "TN-09", "party": "R", "oldId": "H0TN03254", "id": "H8TN09114", "name": "CHARLOTTE BERGMANN" }, { "cycle": 2018, "district": "TX-22", "party": "D", "oldId": "H8TX22313", "id": "H8MA22015", "name": "SRI PRESTON KULKARNI" }, { "cycle": 2020, "district": "AZ-02", "party": "R", "oldId": "H8AZ02201", "id": "H0AZ02190", "name": "BRANDON MARTIN" }, { "cycle": 2020, "district": "CA-21", "party": "D", "oldId": "H8CA39190", "id": "H8CA10167", "name": "TJ COX" }, { "cycle": 2020, "district": "CA-25", "party": "R", "oldId": "H0CA25105", "id": "H0CA25162", "name": "MIKE GARCIA" }, { "cycle": 2020, "district": "CA-50", "party": "R", "oldId": "H0CA48024", "id": "H0CA50178", "name": "DARRELL ISSA" }, { "cycle": 2020, "district": "CA-51", "party": "R", "oldId": "H6CA51066", "id": "H8CA51062", "name": "JUAN M HIDALGO JR" }, { "cycle": 2020, "district": "CA-53", "party": "D", "oldId": "H8CA49074", "id": "H0CA53115", "name": "SARA JACOBS" }, { "cycle": 2020, "district": "FL-18", "party": "D", "oldId": "H8FL18010", "id": "H0FL18207", "name": "PAM KEITH" }, { "cycle": 2020, "district": "FL-19", "party": "R", "oldId": "H6FL18097", "id": "H0FL19205", "name": "BYRON DONALDS" }, { "cycle": 2020, "district": "GA-01", "party": "D", "oldId": "H0GA01029", "id": "H0GA01078", "name": "JOYCE MARIE GRIGGS" }, { "cycle": 2020, "district": "GA-07", "party": "R", "oldId": "H0GA07273", "id": "H0GA07232", "name": "RICH MCCORMICK" }, { "cycle": 2020, "district": "IN-06", "party": "D", "oldId": null, "id": "H8IN06152", "name": "JEANNINE LEE LAKE" }, { "cycle": 2020, "district": "LA-01", "party": "D", "oldId": "H0LA02242", "id": "H8LA01148", "name": "LEE ANN DUGAS" }, { "cycle": 2020, "district": "MD-04", "party": "R", "oldId": "H0MD01216", "id": "H4MD04071", "name": "GEORGE E MCDERMOTT" }, { "cycle": 2020, "district": "NC-11", "party": "D", "oldId": "H0NC12132", "id": "H0NC11175", "name": "MOE DAVIS" }, { "cycle": 2020, "district": "TN-06", "party": "D", "oldId": "H0TN06364", "id": "H8TN06169", "name": "CHRISTOPHER MARTIN FINLEY" }, { "cycle": 2020, "district": "TN-07", "party": "R", "oldId": "H8TN07076", "id": "H0TN07255", "name": "MARK E GREEN" }, { "cycle": 2020, "district": "TN-09", "party": "R", "oldId": "H0TN03254", "id": "H8TN09114", "name": "CHARLOTTE BERGMANN" }, { "cycle": 2020, "district": "TX-03", "party": "R", "oldId": "H0TX26162", "id": "H8TX03123", "name": "VAN TAYLOR" }, { "cycle": 2020, "district": "TX-10", "party": "D", "oldId": "H0TX10208", "id": "H8TX10110", "name": "MIKE SIEGEL" }, { "cycle": 2020, "district": "TX-20", "party": "R", "oldId": "H2TX27166", "id": "H8TX21331", "name": "MAURO GARZA" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "AL-03", "party": "D", "oldId": "H2AL03149", "id": "H2AL03131", "name": "LIN VEASEY" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "CA-11", "party": "R", "oldId": "H0CA08069", "id": "H2CA12174", "name": "JOHN DENNIS" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "CA-24", "party": "R", "oldId": "H2CA24229", "id": "H4CA24175", "name": "BRAD ALLEN" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "CA-38", "party": "D", "oldId": "H2CA39078", "id": "H2CA22157", "name": "LINDA T SÁNCHEZ" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "CA-44", "party": "R", "oldId": "H2CA04163", "id": "H0CA38140", "name": "PAUL JONES" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "CA-47", "party": "R", "oldId": "H0CA05107", "id": "H6CA48245", "name": "SCOTT BAUGH" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "FL-26", "party": "R", "oldId": "H2FL25018", "id": "H4FL20023", "name": "MARIO DIAZ-BALART" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "FL-27", "party": "R", "oldId": "H8FL27185", "id": "H0FL23090", "name": "MARIA ELVIRA SALAZAR" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "GA-07", "party": "R", "oldId": "H0GA07232", "id": "H2GA07154", "name": "MARK GONSALVES" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "IN-06", "party": "R", "oldId": "H8IN06129", "id": "H2IN04168", "name": "GREG PENCE" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "IN-07", "party": "D", "oldId": "H8IN07184", "id": "H2IN04168", "name": "ANDRÉ CARSON" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "MD-04", "party": "D", "oldId": "H0MD07387", "id": "H2MD04315", "name": "GLENN F IVEY" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "MO-08", "party": "R", "oldId": "H4MO08162", "id": "H2MO02177", "name": "JASON SMITH" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "NC-09", "party": "D", "oldId": "H2NC09225", "id": "H2NC04150", "name": "BEN CLARK" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "NJ-07", "party": "D", "oldId": "H8NJ07223", "id": "H2NJ06210", "name": "TOM MALINOWSKI" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "NY-01", "party": "R", "oldId": null, "id": "H0NY02200", "name": "NICHOLAS J LALOTA" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "NY-23", "party": "D", "oldId": "H8NY23175", "id": "H2NY23186", "name": "MAX H DELLA PIA" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "OH-04", "party": "D", "oldId": "H2OH04164", "id": "H2OH04156", "name": "TAMIE WILSON" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "OH-12", "party": "D", "oldId": "H2OH12134", "id": "H2OH12126", "name": "AMY RIPPEL-ELTON" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "PA-02", "party": "R", "oldId": "H2PA01123", "id": "H2PA02170", "name": "AARON BASHIR" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "PA-06", "party": "R", "oldId": "H2PA06197", "id": "H2PA06205", "name": "GUY CIARROCCHI" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "PA-12", "party": "R", "oldId": "H2PA12070", "id": "H4PA18131", "name": "MIKE DOYLE" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "TN-03", "party": "D", "oldId": "H0TN03452", "id": "H2TN03219", "name": "MEG GORMAN" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "TX-03", "party": "R", "oldId": "H6TX14132", "id": "H2TX03290", "name": "KEITH SELF" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "TX-10", "party": "D", "oldId": "H2TX21201", "id": "H2TX21193", "name": "LINDA NUNO" }, { "cycle": 2022, "district": "UT-02", "party": "D", "oldId": "H2UT02498", "id": "H2UT02464", "name": "NICK MITCHELL" } ] }, "limitations": [ "No target-election presidential results are used. Most recent completed presidential election is 2016 for 2018/2020 and 2020 for 2022/2024.", "Historical older presidential results are unavailable on 2022/2024 maps; single-election fallback matches production availability behavior.", "National and district polls must have start, end and original 538 created_at calendar dates on/before cutoff. created_at is a conservative logged-availability proxy; source release dates and later revisions are not independently certified.", "Poll questions are gated to the actual nominees; historical uninformed versus informed ballot status cannot be fully certified from this archive.", "No current pollster ratings or house effects are applied retrospectively; neutral historical quality used for every family.", "Repeat compression follows current production all-release same-firm/district behavior, not the proposed future 14-day implementation.", "Candidate IDs are drawn from official FEC nominees and candidate history; special replacements without a dated registry are excluded from the score sample.", "NC2020, LA and ME02 RCV convention problems are excluded. Alaska2022/24 is already excluded by corrected source.", "Known NY/MN results and national totals were repaired, but other states are not a complete source re-audit.", "2024 was already inspected in prior work; this locked retest is retrospective, not an untouched holdout.", "No fundraising proxies, outcome-fitted candidate quality, probability recalibration or target-race tuning used.", "The national environment is rebuilt with a single fixed transparent rule for all four cycles. It does not reproduce the live externally sourced RCP average or 538 own adjusted averages." ], "pollingData": { "source": "Preserved original FiveThirtyEight national and district poll CSVs from Internet Archive", "sourceManifest": [ { "file": "wayback-gcb-0.csv", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241129175749id_/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls-page/data/generic_ballot_polls.csv", "bytes": 332546, "sha256": "587127abc9e4d658ab9c3cc1df365a8c3039f411d433445090704d461b046ffc" }, { "file": "wayback-gcb-1.csv", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241129175753id_/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls-page/data/generic_ballot_polls_historical.csv", "bytes": 1233367, "sha256": "670ffa8b84c9d9a88b7bb07887b740eeed6cf74ff29440418f56d5c5b1343428" }, { "file": "wayback-house-0.csv", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241129175737id_/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls-page/data/house_polls.csv", "bytes": 373366, "sha256": "0b7e5f2d293dd1343c052a4a1263f68fbb2629f97181f4a774bf7dcf84167225" }, { "file": "wayback-house-1.csv", "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20241129175909id_/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls-page/data/house_polls_historical.csv", "bytes": 1508309, "sha256": "a08a26c33087392ca340d04faacdcb4af6261146d20b3414973cad24aa70dc2c" } ], "archiveEntryCutoffEnforced": true, "historicalFuturePollGradesExcluded": true, "nationalAverageMethod": "Use preserved original 538 generic ballot records for all cycles, gated by field dates and created_at calendar date. One contribution per poll_id, prefer LV then RV then adult; average duplicate questions within chosen population; fixed45daydecay, bounded sqrt(n/600), LV1/RV.9/adult.75, partisan/internal.6, same-firm1/sqrt(releasecount), neutral pollster quality. This is a transparent common reconstruction, not the live external RCP average or fitted national response.", "normalizedInputSha256": "78473a430fd70b9bec59a64a12d3eb767146c5ebe39056eb703129eb607d9df1" }, "dataFeasibility": { "timelyNationalSeriesForAllEightCutoffs": true, "sufficientReplacementCohortsAtD37": [ 2020, 2024 ], "small2022CohortExplained": "Most seats were redrawn; same-number prior House residual is not transferable. Unchanged at-large seats are repaired rather than blanket flagged redrawn. Only two eligible replacements remain.", "strictProspectiveCalibrationEstablished": false } }, "limitations": [ "Retrospective historical cohorts have been inspected in earlier work; not a pristine prospective holdout.", "Archive created_at is an availability proxy; exact original public-release dates and revisions are not fully certified.", "ME-02 ranked-choice/Independent write-in and other multiway races require further candidate-level modelling.", "133 districts have newly audited primary-ballot coverage; 302 remain explicitly unverified by this audit.", "No candidate resume coefficient or fundraising coefficient was selected." ] }