COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne

Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 26, 2026

Alabama Governor Forecast

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Former Senator Doug Jones and Senator Tommy Tuberville are running for an open seat. Jones has won statewide before, but Alabama’s Republican lean is deep; Tuberville’s name recognition from football and Washington gives the race a familiar cast.

Forecast summary

Model margin
R+13.87
Rating
Likely R
Polling average
R+8.94
Fundamentals
R+14.67
Matchup
Doug Jones vs. Tommy Tuberville

FORECAST HISTORY

Model margin over time

Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.

No candidate win probabilities have been published from a frozen, label-verified simulation run yet.

MODEL BREAKDOWN

How the forecast is built

The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.

Polling average — — · —
Fundamentals — — · —
Projected margin — Published model output
Polling Fundamentals

Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.

POLLING INPUTS

Polls behind the average

Polling average
R+8.94

Field dates Pollster Sample Results
Fielded through Jul 11, 2026yes. every kid. (D)601 LVD Doug Jones 41% · R Tommy Tuberville 49%
Fielded through Nov 13, 2025Cygnal (R)605 LVD Doug Jones 34% · R Tommy Tuberville 53%

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

See all Governor races