Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 26, 2026
Arizona Governor Forecast
‹ See all Governor racesGovernor Katie Hobbs is seeking re-election against Representative Andy Biggs. Arizona has become one of the country’s most closely divided states, where a few fast-growing suburbs can matter as much as a party’s strength in Phoenix or Tucson.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- D+5.27
- Rating
- Likely D
- Polling average
- D+7.16
- Fundamentals
- D+1.32
- Matchup
- Katie Hobbs vs. Andy Biggs
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
D+7.16
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded through Aug 19, 2026 | NextGen P (R) | 1,627 LV | D Katie Hobbs 39% · R Andy Biggs 38% |
| Fielded through Aug 17, 2026 | Quantus Insights (R) | 780 LV | D Katie Hobbs 49% · R Andy Biggs 43% |
| Fielded through Aug 16, 2026 | Kreate Strategies (R) | 900 LV | D Katie Hobbs 45% · R Andy Biggs 40% |
| Fielded through Aug 13, 2026 | Stealth Analytics | 530 LV | D Katie Hobbs 43% · R Andy Biggs 38% |
| Fielded through Aug 13, 2026 | Noble Predictive Insights | 923 LV | D Katie Hobbs 48% · R Andy Biggs 35% |
| Fielded through Jul 30, 2026 | Tarrance Group (R) | 600 LV | D Katie Hobbs 52% · R Andy Biggs 48% |
| Fielded through Jul 28, 2026 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) | 913 LV | D Katie Hobbs 52% · R Andy Biggs 44% |
| Fielded through May 7, 2026 | Noble Predictive Insights | 996 RV | D Katie Hobbs 41% · R Andy Biggs 37% |
| Fielded through Apr 24, 2026 | TIPP Insights (R) | 1,159 LV | D Katie Hobbs 48% · R Andy Biggs 38% |
| Fielded through Feb 26, 2026 | Noble Predictive Insights | 1,023 RV | D Katie Hobbs 42% · R Andy Biggs 37% |
| Fielded through Jan 24, 2026 | Center for Excellence in Polling | 519 LV | D Katie Hobbs 50% · R Andy Biggs 41% |
| Fielded through Nov 10, 2025 | Emerson College | 850 RV | D Katie Hobbs 44% · R Andy Biggs 43% |
| Fielded through Aug 18, 2025 | Noble Predictive Insights | 948 RV | D Katie Hobbs 39% · R Andy Biggs 37% |
| Fielded through May 16, 2025 | Noble Predictive Insights | 1,026 RV | D Katie Hobbs 40% · R Andy Biggs 38% |
| Fielded through Apr 9, 2025 | Pulse Opinion Research (R) | 501 LV | D Katie Hobbs 46% · R Andy Biggs 42% |
| Fielded through Feb 13, 2025 | Noble Predictive Insights | 1,006 RV | D Katie Hobbs 40% · R Andy Biggs 38% |
| Fielded through Feb 7, 2025 | Kreate Strategies (R) | 924 LV | D Katie Hobbs 43% · R Andy Biggs 44% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.