Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 26, 2026
California Governor Forecast
‹ See all Governor racesFormer Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and conservative commentator Steve Hilton are competing for an open seat. California’s Democratic advantage is large, but the state’s scale, housing costs and regional divides make the governor’s race its own political universe.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- D+19.81
- Rating
- Safe D
- Polling average
- D+20.49
- Fundamentals
- D+18.07
- Matchup
- Xavier Becerra vs. Steve Hilton
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
D+20.49
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded Sep 15–Sep 20, 2026 | SurveyUSA / ABC 10News–Union-Tribune | 1,000 A | D Xavier Becerra 55% · R Steve Hilton 33% |
| Fielded Sep 8–Sep 14, 2026 | Citrin Center / POLITICO / TrueDot | 1,983 LV | D Xavier Becerra 54% · R Steve Hilton 36% |
| Fielded through Aug 16, 2026 | David J Wolfson | 912 RV | D Xavier Becerra 55% · R Steve Hilton 46% |
| Fielded through Aug 9, 2026 | University of California, Berkeley | 2,310 LV | D Xavier Becerra 55% · R Steve Hilton 37% |
| Fielded through Jul 6, 2026 | Public Policy Institute of California | 1,003 LV | D Xavier Becerra 61% · R Steve Hilton 35% |
| Fielded through Jun 17, 2026 | Kreate Strategies (R) | 900 LV | D Xavier Becerra 58% · R Steve Hilton 33% |
| Fielded through May 26, 2026 | Center for Excellence in Polling | 735 LV | D Xavier Becerra 58% · R Steve Hilton 35% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.