Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 26, 2026
Connecticut Governor Forecast
‹ See all Governor racesGovernor Ned Lamont is seeking another term against State Senator Ryan Fazio. Connecticut is a reliably Democratic state, but its fiscal pressures and high cost of living give a Republican challenger a familiar opening argument.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- D+16.29
- Rating
- Safe D
- Polling average
- D+18.96
- Fundamentals
- D+12.43
- Matchup
- Ned Lamont vs. Ryan Fazio
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
D+18.96
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded through Aug 24, 2026 | University of New Hampshire | 809 LV | D Ned Lamont 52% · R Ryan Fazio 37% |
| Fielded through Jul 26, 2026 | GreatBlue Research | 1,000 RV | D Ned Lamont 50% · R Ryan Fazio 30% |
| Fielded through Jun 23, 2026 | University of New Hampshire | 821 LV | D Ned Lamont 49% · R Ryan Fazio 36% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.