Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 26, 2026
Florida Governor Forecast
‹ See all Governor racesFormer Representative David Jolly and Representative Byron Donalds are competing for an open seat. Florida’s governor will inherit a fast-growing state where insurance costs, migration and development can turn local concerns into statewide arguments.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- R+4.27
- Rating
- Lean R
- Polling average
- R+3.71
- Fundamentals
- R+4.99
- Matchup
- David Jolly vs. Byron Donalds
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
R+3.71
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded through Aug 13, 2026 | Hart Research (D) | 600 LV | D David Jolly 46% · R Byron Donalds 45% |
| Fielded through Jul 26, 2026 | Targoz Market Research | 1,026 LV | D David Jolly 38% · R Byron Donalds 45% |
| Fielded through Jul 17, 2026 | University of North Florida | 848 LV | D David Jolly 41% · R Byron Donalds 46% |
| Fielded through Jul 11, 2026 | Change Research (D) | 1,348 RV | D David Jolly 41% · R Byron Donalds 40% |
| Fielded through Jun 9, 2026 | Kaplan Strategies (R) | 668 LV | D David Jolly 30% · R Byron Donalds 35% |
| Fielded through May 16, 2026 | Change Research (D) | 1,593 LV | D David Jolly 46% · R Byron Donalds 42% |
| Fielded through May 9, 2026 | Cherry Communications (R) | 604 LV | D David Jolly 39% · R Byron Donalds 47% |
| Fielded through Apr 13, 2026 | Stetson University | 848 LV | D David Jolly 40% · R Byron Donalds 47% |
| Fielded through Apr 9, 2026 | Echelon Insights (R) | 406 LV | D David Jolly 43% · R Byron Donalds 49% |
| Fielded through Apr 3, 2026 | MDW Communications (D) | 1,834 LV | D David Jolly 41% · R Byron Donalds 41% |
| Fielded through Mar 31, 2026 | Emerson College | 1,165 LV | D David Jolly 39% · R Byron Donalds 44% |
| Fielded through Mar 2, 2026 | University of North Florida | 786 LV | D David Jolly 36% · R Byron Donalds 42% |
| Fielded through Feb 16, 2026 | Targoz Market Research | 1,129 LV | D David Jolly 36% · R Byron Donalds 41% |
| Fielded through Oct 25, 2025 | University of North Florida | 728 LV | D David Jolly 34% · R Byron Donalds 45% |
| Fielded through Sep 18, 2025 | Targoz Market Research | 1,118 RV | D David Jolly 32% · R Byron Donalds 36% |
| Fielded through Aug 12, 2025 | Bendixen & Amandi | 800 RV | D David Jolly 38% · R Byron Donalds 42% |
| Fielded through Aug 5, 2025 | AIF Center Poll | 650 LV | D David Jolly 37% · R Byron Donalds 41% |
| Fielded through Jul 28, 2025 | Victory Insights (R) | 750 RV | D David Jolly 38% · R Byron Donalds 43% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.