Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 26, 2026
Georgia Governor Forecast
‹ See all Governor racesKeisha Lance Bottoms, the former mayor of Atlanta, is running against business executive Rick Jackson for an open seat. Georgia’s growth has made its suburbs a central prize, while rural voters remain a powerful counterweight.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- D+1.23
- Rating
- Tilt D
- Polling average
- D+0.66
- Fundamentals
- D+2.32
- Matchup
- Keisha Lance Bottoms vs. Rick Jackson
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
D+0.66
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded Sep 22–Sep 23, 2026 | InsiderAdvantage (R) | 1,200 LV | D Keisha Lance Bottoms 46% · R Rick Jackson 48% |
| Fielded through Aug 17, 2026 | InsiderAdvantage (R) | 800 LV | D Keisha Lance Bottoms 46% · R Rick Jackson 46% |
| Fielded through Jul 16, 2026 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) | 1,060 LV | D Keisha Lance Bottoms 48% · R Rick Jackson 46% |
| Fielded through Jul 13, 2026 | State Navigate | 448 LV | D Keisha Lance Bottoms 52% · R Rick Jackson 44% |
| Fielded through Jun 30, 2026 | Wick Insights | 1,175 LV | D Keisha Lance Bottoms 43% · R Rick Jackson 43% |
| Fielded through Jun 27, 2026 | Fox News / Beacon Research | 1,002 RV | D Keisha Lance Bottoms 52% · R Rick Jackson 47% |
| Fielded through Jun 2, 2026 | Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) | 510 LV | D Keisha Lance Bottoms 53% · R Rick Jackson 38% |
| Fielded through Apr 9, 2026 | Echelon Insights (R) | 407 LV | D Keisha Lance Bottoms 49% · R Rick Jackson 43% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.