Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 26, 2026
Iowa Governor Forecast
‹ See all Governor racesState Auditor Rob Sand is seeking an open seat against businessman Zach Lahn. Sand has won statewide as a Democrat in a state that has leaned Republican in federal races, a record that gives the contest an unusually clear question: can a personal vote outlast the party tide?
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- D+4.78
- Rating
- Lean D
- Polling average
- D+8.59
- Fundamentals
- R+2.60
- Matchup
- Rob Sand vs. Zach Lahn
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
D+8.59
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded Sep 17–Sep 20, 2026 | Marist University | 1,050 RV | D Rob Sand 54% · R Zach Lahn 42% |
| Fielded through Aug 22, 2026 | Suffolk University | 500 LV | D Rob Sand 48% · R Zach Lahn 44% |
| Fielded through Aug 4, 2026 | Emerson College | 712 LV | D Rob Sand 48% · R Zach Lahn 43% |
| Fielded through Jun 27, 2026 | New York Times / Siena College | 600 LV | D Rob Sand 48% · R Zach Lahn 47% |
| Fielded through Jun 27, 2026 | Fox News / Beacon Research | 1,003 RV | D Rob Sand 53% · R Zach Lahn 44% |
| Fielded through Jun 19, 2026 | Cygnal (R) | 600 LV | D Rob Sand 48% · R Zach Lahn 43% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.