Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 26, 2026
Massachusetts Governor Forecast
‹ See all Governor racesGovernor Maura Healey is seeking another term against business executive Mike Minogue. Massachusetts is strongly Democratic, but Healey must answer for the everyday pressures of housing and transportation that reach voters across party lines.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- D+24.21
- Rating
- Safe D
- Polling average
- D+26.46
- Fundamentals
- D+26.05
- Matchup
- Maura Healey vs. Mike Minogue
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
D+26.46
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded through Aug 24, 2026 | University of New Hampshire | 881 LV | D Maura Healey 54% · R Mike Minogue 30% |
| Fielded through Aug 12, 2026 | University of Massachusetts Amherst / YouGov | 800 RV | D Maura Healey 53% · R Mike Minogue 33% |
| Fielded through Jun 23, 2026 | University of New Hampshire | 623 LV | D Maura Healey 51% · R Mike Minogue 32% |
| Fielded through Jun 12, 2026 | Suffolk University | 500 RV | D Maura Healey 56% · R Mike Minogue 31% |
| Fielded through May 7, 2026 | Polity Research | 608 RV | D Maura Healey 58% · R Mike Minogue 31% |
| Fielded through May 7, 2026 | Polity Research | 608 RV | D Maura Healey 59% · R Mike Minogue 30% |
| Fielded through Apr 20, 2026 | University of New Hampshire | 599 LV | D Maura Healey 52% · R Mike Minogue 32% |
| Fielded through Feb 16, 2026 | University of New Hampshire | 620 LV | D Maura Healey 56% · R Mike Minogue 27% |
| Fielded through Oct 29, 2025 | University of Massachusetts Amherst / YouGov | 800 A | D Maura Healey 51% · R Mike Minogue 26% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.