COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne

Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 26, 2026

Maine Governor Forecast

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With Governor Janet Mills leaving office, former State House Speaker Hannah Pingree and Robert Charles are competing for an open seat. Maine’s independent streak and strong town-level politics can complicate the tidy partisan story told by its federal results.

Forecast summary

Model margin
D+10.68
Rating
Likely D
Polling average
D+14.18
Fundamentals
D+8.02
Matchup
Hannah Pingree vs. Robert Charles

FORECAST HISTORY

Model margin over time

Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.

No candidate win probabilities have been published from a frozen, label-verified simulation run yet.

MODEL BREAKDOWN

How the forecast is built

The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.

Polling average — — · —
Fundamentals — — · —
Projected margin — Published model output
Polling Fundamentals

Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.

POLLING INPUTS

Polls behind the average

Polling average
D+14.18

Field dates Pollster Sample Results
Fielded through Aug 10, 2026Fox News / Beacon Research1,000 LVD Hannah Pingree 49% · R Robert Charles 38%
Fielded through Jul 20, 2026University of New Hampshire1,178 LVD Hannah Pingree 49% · R Robert Charles 35%

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

See all Governor races