COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne

Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 26, 2026

Michigan Governor Forecast

‹ See all Governor races

Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson and Representative John James are competing for an open seat. Michigan’s close elections have made election administration, manufacturing and the state’s changing suburbs recurring parts of the governor’s debate.

Forecast summary

Model margin
D+8.80
Rating
Likely D
Polling average
D+11.45
Fundamentals
D+3.43
Matchup
Jocelyn Benson vs. John James

FORECAST HISTORY

Model margin over time

Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.

No candidate win probabilities have been published from a frozen, label-verified simulation run yet.

MODEL BREAKDOWN

How the forecast is built

The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.

Polling average — — · —
Fundamentals — — · —
Projected margin — Published model output
Polling Fundamentals

Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.

POLLING INPUTS

Polls behind the average

Polling average
D+11.45

Field dates Pollster Sample Results
Fielded Sep 16–Sep 20, 2026Suffolk University500 LVD Jocelyn Benson 50.6% · R John James 34.4%
Fielded through Aug 11, 2026Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)877 LVD Jocelyn Benson 49% · R John James 44%
Fielded through Jul 31, 2026EPIC-MRA600 LVD Jocelyn Benson 47% · R John James 38%
Fielded through Jul 29, 2026Mitchell Research & Communications672 LVD Jocelyn Benson 46% · R John James 44%
Fielded through Jul 24, 2026Glengariff Group600 LVD Jocelyn Benson 44% · R John James 39%
Fielded through Jun 13, 2026Mitchell Research & Communications827 LVD Jocelyn Benson 51% · R John James 40%
Fielded through May 23, 2026TIPP Insights (R)1,163 LVD Jocelyn Benson 49% · R John James 38%
Fielded through May 7, 2026Mitchell Research & Communications607 LVD Jocelyn Benson 50% · R John James 35%
Fielded through May 1, 2026Glengariff Group600 LVD Jocelyn Benson 46% · R John James 40%
Fielded through Mar 29, 2026Impact Research (D)800 LVD Jocelyn Benson 51% · R John James 46%
Fielded through Mar 24, 2026Michigan State University / YouGov1,000 AD Jocelyn Benson 41% · R John James 31%
Fielded through Feb 16, 2026Impact Research (D)800 LVD Jocelyn Benson 49% · R John James 46%
Fielded through Feb 2, 2026Glengariff Group600 RVD Jocelyn Benson 43% · R John James 43%
Fielded through Jan 6, 2026Glengariff Group600 LVD Jocelyn Benson 48% · R John James 49%
Fielded through Nov 21, 2025Mitchell Research & Communications616 LVD Jocelyn Benson 39% · R John James 47%
Fielded through Nov 11, 2025EPIC-MRA600 RVD Jocelyn Benson 43% · R John James 44%
Fielded through Oct 25, 2025Rosetta Stone Communications (R)637 LVD Jocelyn Benson 42% · R John James 49%
Fielded through Oct 14, 2025Schoen Cooperman Research (D)600 LVD Jocelyn Benson 43% · R John James 42%
Fielded through May 8, 2025Glengariff Group600 RVD Jocelyn Benson 46% · R John James 45%
Fielded through Mar 13, 2025Mitchell Research & Communications688 LVD Jocelyn Benson 45% · R John James 42%
Fielded through Feb 8, 2025Target Insyght600 VD Jocelyn Benson 54% · R John James 39%

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

See all Governor races