Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 26, 2026
Minnesota Governor Forecast
‹ See all Governor racesSenator Amy Klobuchar and State House Speaker Lisa Demuth are running for an open seat. The race begins after Governor Tim Walz’s departure and pits a nationally familiar Democrat against a Republican leader with deep ties to the state legislature.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- D+8.63
- Rating
- Likely D
- Polling average
- D+9.45
- Fundamentals
- D+8.54
- Matchup
- Amy Klobuchar vs. Lisa Demuth
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
D+9.45
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded through Jun 10, 2026 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 800 RV | D Amy Klobuchar 48% · R Lisa Demuth 40% |
| Fielded through Feb 8, 2026 | Emerson College | 1,000 LV | D Amy Klobuchar 51% · R Lisa Demuth 38% |
| Fielded through Sep 18, 2025 | SurveyUSA (D) | 568 LV | D Amy Klobuchar 46% · R Lisa Demuth 41% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.