Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 26, 2026
Nebraska Governor Forecast
‹ See all Governor racesGovernor Jim Pillen is seeking another term against Lynne Walz. Nebraska’s Republican lean is strong, but Democratic candidates have sometimes found room in statewide races by building a personal coalition beyond the party’s usual base.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- R+13.95
- Rating
- Likely R
- Polling average
- R+3.79
- Fundamentals
- R+13.09
- Matchup
- Lynne Walz vs. Jim Pillen
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
R+3.79
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded through Apr 29, 2026 | Lake Research Partners (D) | 900 LV | D Lynne Walz 45% · R Jim Pillen 47% |
| Fielded through Apr 7, 2026 | Public Policy Polling (D) | 670 RV | D Lynne Walz 33% · R Jim Pillen 38% |
| Fielded through Dec 17, 2025 | Lake Research Partners (D) | 900 LV | D Lynne Walz 43% · R Jim Pillen 48% |
| Fielded through Jul 29, 2025 | Lake Research Partners (D) | 900 LV | D Lynne Walz 39% · R Jim Pillen 51% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.