Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 26, 2026
New Hampshire Governor Forecast
‹ See all Governor racesGovernor Kelly Ayotte is seeking another term against Cinde Warmington, a member of the state’s Executive Council. New Hampshire’s independent-minded electorate often gives governors a different kind of race from the federal contests on the same ballot.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- R+6.92
- Rating
- Likely R
- Polling average
- R+11.07
- Fundamentals
- D+1.55
- Matchup
- Cinde Warmington vs. Kelly Ayotte
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
R+11.07
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded through Aug 24, 2026 | University of New Hampshire | 2,143 LV | D Cinde Warmington 39% · R Kelly Ayotte 49% |
| Fielded through Aug 18, 2026 | Saint Anselm College | 1,411 LV | D Cinde Warmington 38% · R Kelly Ayotte 49% |
| Fielded through Jun 25, 2026 | Saint Anselm College | 1,614 RV | D Cinde Warmington 37% · R Kelly Ayotte 45% |
| Fielded through Jun 23, 2026 | University of New Hampshire | 2,232 LV | D Cinde Warmington 39% · R Kelly Ayotte 44% |
| Fielded through Apr 21, 2026 | University of New Hampshire | 1,117 LV | D Cinde Warmington 39% · R Kelly Ayotte 47% |
| Fielded through Mar 18, 2026 | Saint Anselm College | 1,491 RV | D Cinde Warmington 39% · R Kelly Ayotte 46% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.