COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne

Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 26, 2026

New Mexico Governor Forecast

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Former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland and Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull are competing for an open seat. New Mexico’s public lands, energy economy and distinctive mix of communities make the governor’s office consequential well beyond Santa Fe.

Forecast summary

Model margin
D+12.18
Rating
Likely D
Polling average
D+19.05
Fundamentals
D+8.69
Matchup
Deb Haaland vs. Gregg Hull

FORECAST HISTORY

Model margin over time

Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.

No candidate win probabilities have been published from a frozen, label-verified simulation run yet.

MODEL BREAKDOWN

How the forecast is built

The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.

Polling average — — · —
Fundamentals — — · —
Projected margin — Published model output
Polling Fundamentals

Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.

POLLING INPUTS

Polls behind the average

Polling average
D+19.05

Field dates Pollster Sample Results
Fielded through Aug 7, 2026BSP Research800 RVD Deb Haaland 41% · R Gregg Hull 24%
Fielded through Jul 13, 2026McLaughlin & Associates (R)400 LVD Deb Haaland 45% · R Gregg Hull 46%

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

See all Governor races