Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 26, 2026
Nevada Governor Forecast
‹ See all Governor racesAttorney General Aaron Ford is challenging Governor Joe Lombardo in a state where the presidential vote can swing and the population is concentrated around Las Vegas and Reno. Tourism, housing and water policy give the campaign a distinctly western agenda.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- R+1.82
- Rating
- Tilt R
- Polling average
- R+7.04
- Fundamentals
- D+3.83
- Matchup
- Aaron Ford vs. Joe Lombardo
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
R+7.04
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded through Jul 29, 2026 | Tarrance Group (R) | 555 LV | D Aaron Ford 43% · R Joe Lombardo 50% |
| Fielded through Jul 29, 2026 | Public Opinion Strategies (R) | 600 LV | D Aaron Ford 42% · R Joe Lombardo 51% |
| Fielded through Jul 16, 2026 | Public Policy Polling (D) | 558 LV | D Aaron Ford 44% · R Joe Lombardo 44% |
| Fielded through Jul 16, 2026 | Grassroots Targeting (R) | 2,500 LV | D Aaron Ford 40% · R Joe Lombardo 52% |
| Fielded through Jul 12, 2026 | Wedgewood Polls | 350 LV | D Aaron Ford 47% · R Joe Lombardo 50% |
| Fielded through May 11, 2026 | Global Strategy Group (D) | 700 LV | D Aaron Ford 42% · R Joe Lombardo 45% |
| Fielded through Mar 13, 2026 | Noble Predictive Insights | 845 RV | D Aaron Ford 38% · R Joe Lombardo 39% |
| Fielded through Feb 17, 2026 | Hart Research (D) | 800 LV | D Aaron Ford 43% · R Joe Lombardo 46% |
| Fielded through Nov 18, 2025 | Emerson College | 800 RV | D Aaron Ford 41% · R Joe Lombardo 41% |
| Fielded through Oct 13, 2025 | Noble Predictive Insights | 766 RV | D Aaron Ford 37% · R Joe Lombardo 40% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.