Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 26, 2026
New York Governor Forecast
‹ See all Governor racesGovernor Kathy Hochul is seeking another term against Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman. New York’s Democratic advantage statewide meets a powerful suburban and upstate Republican vote, leaving both campaigns to stitch together a sprawling coalition.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- D+12.71
- Rating
- Likely D
- Polling average
- D+10.15
- Fundamentals
- D+11.67
- Matchup
- Kathy Hochul vs. Bruce Blakeman
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
D+10.15
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded through Aug 6, 2026 | Siena College | 811 LV | D Kathy Hochul 49% · R Bruce Blakeman 39% |
| Fielded through Jul 12, 2026 | Red Oak Strategic (R) | 2,000 RV | D Kathy Hochul 47% · R Bruce Blakeman 43% |
| Fielded through Jul 2, 2026 | co/efficient (B) | 625 LV | D Kathy Hochul 47% · R Bruce Blakeman 41% |
| Fielded through Jun 14, 2026 | Pollfinity | 229 LV | D Kathy Hochul 47% · R Bruce Blakeman 37% |
| Fielded through Apr 30, 2026 | Siena College | 806 RV | D Kathy Hochul 49% · R Bruce Blakeman 33% |
| Fielded through Mar 26, 2026 | Echelon Insights (R) | 500 RV | D Kathy Hochul 55% · R Bruce Blakeman 40% |
| Fielded through Mar 26, 2026 | Siena College | 804 RV | D Kathy Hochul 47% · R Bruce Blakeman 34% |
| Fielded through Mar 8, 2026 | McLaughlin & Associates (R) | 800 LV | D Kathy Hochul 52% · R Bruce Blakeman 43% |
| Fielded through Feb 26, 2026 | Siena College | 805 RV | D Kathy Hochul 51% · R Bruce Blakeman 31% |
| Fielded through Feb 19, 2026 | Marist University | 1,442 RV | D Kathy Hochul 50% · R Bruce Blakeman 33% |
| Fielded through Feb 4, 2026 | MAD Global Strategy | 600 LV | D Kathy Hochul 47% · R Bruce Blakeman 34% |
| Fielded through Jan 28, 2026 | Siena College | 802 RV | D Kathy Hochul 54% · R Bruce Blakeman 28% |
| Fielded through Jan 8, 2026 | John Zogby Strategies (D) | 844 LV | D Kathy Hochul 49% · R Bruce Blakeman 34% |
| Fielded through Jan 8, 2026 | John Zogby Strategies (D) | 844 LV | D Kathy Hochul 53% · R Bruce Blakeman 39% |
| Fielded through Dec 12, 2025 | Siena College | 801 RV | D Kathy Hochul 50% · R Bruce Blakeman 25% |
| Fielded through Nov 10, 2025 | J.L. Partners (R) | 500 LV | D Kathy Hochul 47% · R Bruce Blakeman 36% |
| Fielded through Jun 26, 2025 | Siena College | 800 RV | D Kathy Hochul 44% · R Bruce Blakeman 19% |
| Fielded through Apr 24, 2025 | GrayHouse (R) | 600 RV | D Kathy Hochul 44% · R Bruce Blakeman 36% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.