Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 26, 2026
Ohio Governor Forecast
‹ See all Governor racesFormer state health director Amy Acton and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy are competing for an open seat. Ohio has moved right in federal elections, while Acton’s public-health profile and Ramaswamy’s national fame give the race unusually recognizable names.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- R+0.55
- Rating
- Toss-up
- Polling average
- D+1.41
- Fundamentals
- R+2.75
- Matchup
- Amy Acton vs. Vivek Ramaswamy
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
D+1.41
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded through Aug 13, 2026 | Wedgewood Polls | 800 LV | D Amy Acton 47% · R Vivek Ramaswamy 46% |
| Fielded through Aug 4, 2026 | Tulchin Research (D) | 660 LV | D Amy Acton 46% · R Vivek Ramaswamy 44% |
| Fielded through Jun 28, 2026 | New York Times / Siena College | 601 LV | D Amy Acton 47% · R Vivek Ramaswamy 47% |
| Fielded through Jun 16, 2026 | Impact Research (D) / Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) | 800 LV | D Amy Acton 47% · R Vivek Ramaswamy 44% |
| Fielded through Jun 12, 2026 | Tulchin Research (D) | 600 LV | D Amy Acton 47% · R Vivek Ramaswamy 44% |
| Fielded through Jun 1, 2026 | Beacon Research (D) / Shaw & Co. Research (R) | 1,015 RV | D Amy Acton 50% · R Vivek Ramaswamy 49% |
| Fielded through Apr 14, 2026 | Bowling Green State University / YouGov | 1,000 RV | D Amy Acton 47% · R Vivek Ramaswamy 48% |
| Fielded through Apr 9, 2026 | Echelon Insights (R) | 413 LV | D Amy Acton 44% · R Vivek Ramaswamy 49% |
| Fielded through Mar 14, 2026 | Quantus Insights (R) | 809 LV | D Amy Acton 46% · R Vivek Ramaswamy 45% |
| Fielded through Dec 8, 2025 | Data Targeting (R) | 603 LV | D Amy Acton 43% · R Vivek Ramaswamy 45% |
| Fielded through Dec 8, 2025 | Emerson College | 850 RV | D Amy Acton 46% · R Vivek Ramaswamy 45% |
| Fielded through Oct 14, 2025 | YouGov | 800 RV | D Amy Acton 47% · R Vivek Ramaswamy 50% |
| Fielded through Sep 22, 2025 | Hart Research (D) | 800 LV | D Amy Acton 46% · R Vivek Ramaswamy 45% |
| Fielded through Aug 19, 2025 | Emerson College | 1,000 RV | D Amy Acton 39% · R Vivek Ramaswamy 49% |
| Fielded through Jul 28, 2025 | Impact Research (D) | 800 LV | D Amy Acton 46% · R Vivek Ramaswamy 47% |
| Fielded through Apr 24, 2025 | YouGov | 800 RV | D Amy Acton 45% · R Vivek Ramaswamy 50% |
| Fielded through Feb 20, 2025 | Public Policy Polling (D) | 642 RV | D Amy Acton 45% · R Vivek Ramaswamy 44% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.