Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 26, 2026
Oregon Governor Forecast
‹ See all Governor racesGovernor Tina Kotek is seeking another term against Christine Drazan, the former Republican House leader who came close in 2022. Oregon’s sharp urban-rural divide has repeatedly made the governor’s race closer than the state’s presidential results might suggest.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- D+10.15
- Rating
- Likely D
- Polling average
- R+2.74
- Fundamentals
- D+12.07
- Matchup
- Tina Kotek vs. Christine Drazan
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
R+2.74
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded through Jun 24, 2026 | Public Opinion Strategies (R) | 600 RV | D Tina Kotek 44% · R Christine Drazan 48% |
| Fielded through May 12, 2026 | Hoffman Research Group (R) | 603 LV | D Tina Kotek 45% · R Christine Drazan 45% |
| Fielded through Feb 4, 2026 | FM3 Research (D) | 1,065 LV | D Tina Kotek 45% · R Christine Drazan 40% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.