Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 26, 2026
Pennsylvania Governor Forecast
‹ See all Governor racesGovernor Josh Shapiro is seeking another term against State Treasurer Stacy Garrity, an Army veteran. Pennsylvania is a perennial battleground, and the race will test whether Shapiro’s personal standing can hold together a coalition that both parties need.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- D+18.65
- Rating
- Safe D
- Polling average
- D+25.29
- Fundamentals
- D+9.99
- Matchup
- Josh Shapiro vs. Stacy Garrity
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
D+25.29
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded through Aug 23, 2026 | Franklin & Marshall College | 501 RV | D Josh Shapiro 50% · R Stacy Garrity 25% |
| Fielded through Aug 22, 2026 | Bravo/Scrapple | 711 LV | D Josh Shapiro 56% · R Stacy Garrity 25% |
| Fielded through Aug 21, 2026 | New York Times / Siena College | 760 LV | D Josh Shapiro 55% · R Stacy Garrity 39% |
| Fielded through Jul 30, 2026 | National Public Affairs (R) | 600 LV | D Josh Shapiro 50% · R Stacy Garrity 43% |
| Fielded through Jul 13, 2026 | Quinnipiac University | 895 RV | D Josh Shapiro 53% · R Stacy Garrity 40% |
| Fielded through Jun 25, 2026 | Bravo/Scrapple | 644 LV | D Josh Shapiro 54% · R Stacy Garrity 29% |
| Fielded through Jun 14, 2026 | Franklin & Marshall College | 546 RV | D Josh Shapiro 50% · R Stacy Garrity 28% |
| Fielded through Jun 11, 2026 | MAD Global Strategy | 600 LV | D Josh Shapiro 48% · R Stacy Garrity 31% |
| Fielded through May 24, 2026 | PennLive | 683 LV | D Josh Shapiro 53% · R Stacy Garrity 29% |
| Fielded through Mar 29, 2026 | Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | 700 LV | D Josh Shapiro 58% · R Stacy Garrity 36% |
| Fielded through Mar 1, 2026 | Franklin & Marshall College | 834 RV | D Josh Shapiro 48% · R Stacy Garrity 28% |
| Fielded through Feb 23, 2026 | Quinnipiac University | 836 RV | D Josh Shapiro 55% · R Stacy Garrity 37% |
| Fielded through Sep 29, 2025 | Quinnipiac University | 1,579 RV | D Josh Shapiro 55% · R Stacy Garrity 39% |
| Fielded through Sep 28, 2025 | Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | 700 LV | D Josh Shapiro 54% · R Stacy Garrity 36% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.