COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne

Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 26, 2026

South Carolina Governor Forecast

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Attorney General Alan Wilson and State Representative Jermaine Johnson are competing for an open seat. South Carolina’s Republican strength is well established, but population growth around Charleston, Columbia and Greenville keeps the state’s coalition in motion.

Forecast summary

Model margin
R+9.26
Rating
Likely R
Polling average
R+9.01
Fundamentals
R+9.39
Matchup
Jermaine Johnson vs. Alan Wilson

FORECAST HISTORY

Model margin over time

Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.

No candidate win probabilities have been published from a frozen, label-verified simulation run yet.

MODEL BREAKDOWN

How the forecast is built

The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.

Polling average — — · —
Fundamentals — — · —
Projected margin — Published model output
Polling Fundamentals

Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.

POLLING INPUTS

Polls behind the average

Polling average
R+9.01

Field dates Pollster Sample Results
Fielded through Aug 15, 2026Hart Research (D)600 LVD Jermaine Johnson 42% · R Alan Wilson 50%
Fielded through Jul 17, 2026Public Policy Polling (D)577 VD Jermaine Johnson 37% · R Alan Wilson 45%

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

See all Governor races