COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne

Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 26, 2026

Texas Governor Forecast

‹ See all Governor races

Governor Greg Abbott is seeking another term against State Representative Gina Hinojosa. Texas remains a Republican state, but its fast growth and expanding metropolitan regions keep the size and limits of that advantage under constant scrutiny.

Forecast summary

Model margin
R+5.71
Rating
Likely R
Polling average
R+4.00
Fundamentals
R+5.56
Matchup
Gina Hinojosa vs. Greg Abbott

FORECAST HISTORY

Model margin over time

Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.

No candidate win probabilities have been published from a frozen, label-verified simulation run yet.

MODEL BREAKDOWN

How the forecast is built

The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.

Polling average — — · —
Fundamentals — — · —
Projected margin — Published model output
Polling Fundamentals

Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.

POLLING INPUTS

Polls behind the average

Polling average
R+4.00

Field dates Pollster Sample Results
Fielded Sep 19–Sep 22, 2026Texas Public Opinion Research1,007 LVD Gina Hinojosa 46% · R Greg Abbott 50%
Fielded Sep 17–Sep 20, 2026Marist University1,139 RVD Gina Hinojosa 49% · R Greg Abbott 46% · O Other 1%
Fielded Sep 15–Sep 19, 2026Texas Southern University / YouGov1,800 LVD Gina Hinojosa 45% · R Greg Abbott 49%
Fielded Sep 9–Sep 10, 2026NBC News/Mason-Dixon625 LVD Gina Hinojosa 41% · R Greg Abbott 48%
Fielded through Aug 24, 2026Slingshot Strategies (D)1,000 LVD Gina Hinojosa 42% · R Greg Abbott 49%
Fielded through Aug 13, 2026University of Texas / YouGov1,200 RVD Gina Hinojosa 40% · R Greg Abbott 45%
Fielded through Aug 10, 2026Emerson College1,000 LVD Gina Hinojosa 45% · R Greg Abbott 49%
Fielded through Aug 9, 2026GBAO (D)1,000 LVD Gina Hinojosa 48% · R Greg Abbott 49%
Fielded through Jul 31, 2026Wedgewood Polls800 LVD Gina Hinojosa 44% · R Greg Abbott 50%
Fielded through Jul 31, 2026Cygnal (R)800 LVD Gina Hinojosa 46% · R Greg Abbott 49%
Fielded through Jul 30, 2026Texas Southern University1,200 RVD Gina Hinojosa 43% · R Greg Abbott 49%
Fielded through Jul 30, 2026Siena College / Texas A&M University619 LVD Gina Hinojosa 45% · R Greg Abbott 46%
Fielded through Jul 27, 2026Fox News / Beacon Research1,006 RVD Gina Hinojosa 49% · R Greg Abbott 50%
Fielded through Jul 17, 2026Slingshot Strategies (D)1,048 LVD Gina Hinojosa 42% · R Greg Abbott 45%
Fielded through Jun 27, 2026New York Times / Siena College656 LVD Gina Hinojosa 44% · R Greg Abbott 51%
Fielded through Jun 21, 2026SoCal Strategies (R)800 LVD Gina Hinojosa 42% · R Greg Abbott 54%
Fielded through Jun 12, 2026University of Texas / YouGov1,200 RVD Gina Hinojosa 40% · R Greg Abbott 47%
Fielded through Jun 4, 2026Siena College / Texas A&M University807 LVD Gina Hinojosa 44% · R Greg Abbott 49%
Fielded through Jun 4, 2026Quantus Insights (R)800 LVD Gina Hinojosa 41% · R Greg Abbott 49%
Fielded through May 28, 2026Texas Public Opinion Research1,670 LVD Gina Hinojosa 41% · R Greg Abbott 46%
Fielded through May 23, 2026Public Policy Polling (D)643 RVD Gina Hinojosa 44% · R Greg Abbott 48%
Fielded through May 5, 2026Texas Southern University / YouGov1,223 LVD Gina Hinojosa 43% · R Greg Abbott 49%
Fielded through Apr 20, 2026Slingshot Strategies (D)1,018 LVD Gina Hinojosa 43% · R Greg Abbott 48%
Fielded through Apr 19, 2026University of Texas / Texas Politics Project1,200 RVD Gina Hinojosa 38% · R Greg Abbott 44%
Fielded through Feb 22, 2026Univeristy of Texas at Tyler1,117 RVD Gina Hinojosa 41% · R Greg Abbott 49%
Fielded through Feb 16, 2026University of Texas / Texas Politics Project1,300 RVD Gina Hinojosa 35% · R Greg Abbott 45%
Fielded through Feb 3, 2026GBAO (D)1,000 LVD Gina Hinojosa 43% · R Greg Abbott 46%
Fielded through Jan 31, 2026University of Houston / YouGov1,502 LVD Gina Hinojosa 42% · R Greg Abbott 49%
Fielded through Jan 12, 2026Emerson College1,165 RVD Gina Hinojosa 42% · R Greg Abbott 50%

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

See all Governor races