COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne

Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 26, 2026

Vermont Governor Forecast

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Governor Phil Scott, a moderate Republican, is seeking another term against Amanda Janoo. Vermont is one of the country’s bluest states in federal races, yet Scott has repeatedly shown that a popular governor can build a coalition beyond party lines.

Forecast summary

Model margin
R+4.75
Rating
Lean R
Polling average
R+16.84
Fundamentals
D+7.18
Matchup
Amanda Janoo vs. Phil Scott

FORECAST HISTORY

Model margin over time

Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.

No candidate win probabilities have been published from a frozen, label-verified simulation run yet.

MODEL BREAKDOWN

How the forecast is built

The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.

Polling average — — · —
Fundamentals — — · —
Projected margin — Published model output
Polling Fundamentals

Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.

POLLING INPUTS

Polls behind the average

Polling average
R+16.84

Field dates Pollster Sample Results
Fielded through Jul 20, 2026University of New Hampshire954 LVD Amanda Janoo 33% · R Phil Scott 44%
Fielded through Jun 23, 2026University of New Hampshire887 LVD Amanda Janoo 27% · R Phil Scott 42%

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

See all Governor races