Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 26, 2026
Wisconsin Governor Forecast
‹ See all Governor racesMilwaukee County Executive David Crowley and Representative Tom Tiffany are competing for an open seat. Wisconsin is a closely divided state where Milwaukee, Madison and the rural north each tell a different story about the electorate.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- D+2.96
- Rating
- Lean D
- Polling average
- D+3.69
- Fundamentals
- D+1.71
- Matchup
- David Crowley vs. Tom Tiffany
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
D+3.69
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded through Aug 20, 2026 | Marquette University | 738 LV | D David Crowley 51% · R Tom Tiffany 48% |
| Fielded through Aug 18, 2026 | TIPP Insights (R) | 1,119 LV | D David Crowley 47% · R Tom Tiffany 43% |
| Fielded through Aug 13, 2026 | Platform Communications | 500 LV | D David Crowley 48% · R Tom Tiffany 44% |
| Fielded through Aug 3, 2026 | GBAO (D) | 800 LV | D David Crowley 47% · R Tom Tiffany 44% |
| Fielded through Jul 24, 2026 | RMG Research | 800 RV | D David Crowley 46% · R Tom Tiffany 43% |
| Fielded through Mar 19, 2026 | TIPP Insights (R) | 1,175 LV | D David Crowley 42% · R Tom Tiffany 41% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.