COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne
Final forecast · Nov. 3

Updated November 3, 2026 · model inputs through November 3, 2026

Alaska Senate Forecast

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Mary Peltola, the former congresswoman who represented Alaska, is back for a Senate race against Dan Sullivan. In a state large enough to make “neighbor” a generous term, a small statewide electorate can still decide a very big contest.

Forecast summary

Model margin
D+1.82
Rating
Toss-up
Polling average
D+1.89
Fundamentals
R+2.40
Matchup
Mary Peltola vs. Dan Sullivan

FORECAST HISTORY

Chance of winning over time

No candidate win probabilities have been published from a frozen, label-verified simulation run yet.

FORECAST HISTORY

Model margin over time

Published model margins by release date.

MODEL BREAKDOWN

How the forecast is built

The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.

Polling average — — · —
Fundamentals — — · —
Projected margin — Published model output
Polling Fundamentals

Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.

POLLING INPUTS

Polls behind the average

Included surveys, newest first.

Polling average
D+1.89

Field dates Pollster Sample Results
Fielded Oct 31–Nov 1, 2026InsiderAdvantage1,200 LVD Mary Peltola 50% · R Dan Sullivan 50% · O Other 0%
Fielded Oct 23–Oct 30, 2026NY Times/Siena610 LVD Mary Peltola 48% · R Dan Sullivan 46%
Fielded Oct 26–Oct 29, 2026Alaska Survey Research1,326 LVD Mary Peltola 51% · R Dan Sullivan 49%
Fielded Oct 8–Oct 16, 2026Data for Progress694 LVD Mary Peltola 51% · R Dan Sullivan 49% · O Other 0%
Fielded Oct 9–Oct 10, 2026InsiderAdvantage1,200 LVD Mary Peltola 50% · R Dan Sullivan 48%
Fielded Oct 1–Oct 3, 2026Alaska Survey Research1,512 LVD Mary Peltola 51% · R Dan Sullivan 49% · O Other 0%
Fielded Sep 28–Sep 30, 2026Quantus Insights758 LVD Mary Peltola 46% · R Dan Sullivan 46% · O Other 3%
Fielded Sep 21–Sep 30, 2026NY Times/Siena615 LVD Mary Peltola 50% · R Dan Sullivan 43% · O Other 7%
Fielded Sep 22–Sep 24, 2026Trafalgar Group1,079 LVD Mary Peltola 45.5% · R Dan Sullivan 46.8% · O Other 7.6%
Fielded Sep 17, 2026Fabrizio/AnzaloneLV · size n/aD Mary Peltola 53% · R Dan Sullivan 47%
Fielded Sep 17, 2026co/efficientLV · size n/aD Mary Peltola 46% · R Dan Sullivan 49%
Fielded Sep 15, 2026Rasmussen ReportsLV · size n/aD Mary Peltola 39% · R Dan Sullivan 39%
Fielded Sep 10–Sep 12, 2026Alaska Survey Research1,352 LVD Mary Peltola 48% · R Dan Sullivan 44% · O Other 8%
Fielded Aug 20–Aug 23, 2026Alaska Survey Research1,495 LVD Mary Peltola 50.6% · R Dan Sullivan 49.4%
Fielded Aug 17, 2026Data for Progress605 LVD Mary Peltola 53% · R Dan Sullivan 47%
Fielded Aug 5, 2026Alaska Survey Research1,371 LVD Mary Peltola 50.8% · R Dan Sullivan 49.2%
Fielded Aug 4, 2026Data for Progress567 LVD Mary Peltola 53% · R Dan Sullivan 47%
Fielded Jul 1, 2026Siena College593 LVD Mary Peltola 45% · R Dan Sullivan 47%
Fielded Jun 7, 2026Alaska Survey Research1,393 LVD Mary Peltola 48% · R Dan Sullivan 44%
Fielded May 14–May 17, 2026Alaska Survey Research1,401 LVD Mary Peltola 48% · R Dan Sullivan 44%
Fielded Apr 16–Apr 19, 2026Alaska Survey Research1,946 LVD Mary Peltola 50% · R Dan Sullivan 44%
Fielded Jan 16–Jan 17, 2026Public Policy Polling611 RVD Mary Peltola 48% · R Dan Sullivan 46%
Fielded Jan 13, 2026Alaska Survey Research1,988 RVD Mary Peltola 48% · R Dan Sullivan 46%
Fielded Oct 23, 2025Data for Progress823 LVD Mary Peltola 46% · R Dan Sullivan 45%
Fielded Oct 21, 2025Alaska Survey Research1,908 LVD Mary Peltola 48% · R Dan Sullivan 46%
Fielded Aug 8, 2025Data for Progress678 LVD Mary Peltola 45% · R Dan Sullivan 46%
Fielded Aug 1, 2025Alaska Survey Research1,623 LVD Mary Peltola 42% · R Dan Sullivan 47%

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

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