COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne

Updated September 23, 2026 · model inputs through September 22, 2026 · latest included poll: September 17, 2026

Alaska Senate Forecast

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The forecast was recalculated with polling inputs through September 22. The projected margin moved D+1.90 → D+1.73 (R +0.17 points). The rating remains Toss-up. The county map is recalibrated to the September 22 statewide estimate; county baselines and geometry are retained.

Forecast summary

Model margin
D+1.73
Rating
Toss-up
Polling average
D+2.24
Fundamentals
R+2.82
Matchup
Mary Peltola vs. Dan Sullivan

POLLING INPUTS

Polls behind the average

18 polls included in the workbook average. Newest first; latest included field date: September 17, 2026.

Polling average
D+2.24

Field dates Pollster Sample Results Model treatment
Sep 10–12, 2026Alaska Survey Research (secondary index; primary release link not supplied)1,352 LVD Mary Peltola 48% · R Dan Sullivan 44% · O Dan J. Sullivan / Gerald Heikes 8%Included in the Senate polling average. Secondary source index only; the workbook did not include a primary release link. Primary release link was not supplied in the workbook.
2026-09-17–2026-09-17co/efficient— LVD Mary Peltola 46% · R Dan Sullivan 49%Included in model
2026-09-15–2026-09-15Rasmussen Reports— LVD Mary Peltola 39% · R Dan Sullivan 39%Included in model
Fielded August 20–23, 2026Alaska Survey Research1495 LVD Mary Peltola 50.6% · R Dan Sullivan 49.4%Included in the Senate polling average.
August 17, 2026Data for Progress605 LVD Mary Peltola 53% · R Dan Sullivan 47%Included in the Senate polling average.
August 5, 2026Alaska Survey Research1371 LVD Mary Peltola 50.8% · R Dan Sullivan 49.2%Included in the Senate polling average.
August 4, 2026Data for Progress567 LVD Mary Peltola 53% · R Dan Sullivan 47%Included in the Senate polling average.
July 1, 2026Siena College593 LVD Mary Peltola 45% · R Dan Sullivan 47%Included in the Senate polling average.
June 7, 2026Alaska Survey Research1393 LVD Mary Peltola 48% · R Dan Sullivan 44%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded May 14–May 17, 2026Alaska Survey Research1401 LVD Mary Peltola 48% · R Dan Sullivan 44%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded April 16–April 19, 2026Alaska Survey Research1946 LVD Mary Peltola 50% · R Dan Sullivan 44%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded January 16–January 17, 2026Public Policy Polling611 RVD Mary Peltola 48% · R Dan Sullivan 46%Included in the Senate polling average.
January 13, 2026Alaska Survey Research1988 RVD Mary Peltola 48% · R Dan Sullivan 46%Included in the Senate polling average.
October 23, 2025Data for Progress823 LVD Mary Peltola 46% · R Dan Sullivan 45%Included in the Senate polling average.
October 21, 2025Alaska Survey Research1908 LVD Mary Peltola 48% · R Dan Sullivan 46%Included in the Senate polling average.
August 8, 2025Data for Progress678 LVD Mary Peltola 45% · R Dan Sullivan 46%Included in the Senate polling average.
August 1, 2025Alaska Survey Research1623 LVD Mary Peltola 42% · R Dan Sullivan 47%Included in the Senate polling average.
Excluded polls
Field datesPollsterSampleResultsReason
2026-09-17–2026-09-17Fabrizio/Anzalone— LVD Mary Peltola 46% · R Dan Sullivan 41%Missing sample size • EXCLUDED

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

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