Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Alaska House Forecast
‹ See all House racesAlaska elects one representative at large. The COYNTOSS model rates the race Lean R, with a model margin of R+3.9.
Delegation outlook
Lean R for the at-large seat
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 1
- Toss-ups
- 0
- Not rated Solid
- 1
- Districts with polls
- 0 of 1
- Closest district
- AK-01 R+3.9
District map
Alaska congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
Loading district boundaries…
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
The race
Every district in the state, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning.
AK-01 · R incumbent
Alaska at-large district
Hafner 35.8% · Begich 64.2% chance of winning
- Model margin
- R+3.9
- Rating
- Lean R
- Polling average
- No district polls
- Fundamentals
- R+0.9
- Matchup
- Eric Hafner vs. Nick Begich
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 0.0%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+13.1
- Relative district lean
- R+12.5
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- R+2.4
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- R+4.2
- Full fundamentals
- R+0.9
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 50.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±10.5 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.