Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Alabama House Forecast
‹ See all House racesAlabama elects 7 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 1 district as favoring Democrats, 5 as favoring Republicans and 1 as a toss-up.
Delegation outlook
Republicans lead in 6 of 7 districts
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 7
- Toss-ups
- 1
- Not rated Solid
- 1
- Districts with polls
- 1 of 7
- Closest district
- AL-02 R+2.6
District map
Alabama congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
Loading district boundaries…
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
Races to watch
Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.
AL-02 · D incumbent · Model record under review
Alabama's 2nd District
Figures 39.1% · Marques 60.9% chance of winning
- Model margin
- R+2.6
- Rating
- Toss-up
- Polling average
- R+0.2
- Fundamentals
- R+3.3
- Matchup
- Shomari Figures vs. Rhett Marques
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 34.7%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+14.3
- Relative district lean
- R+12.8
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- D+1.2
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- R+4.5
- Full fundamentals
- R+3.3
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 35.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±9.1 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Every district
All 7 Alabama districts
| District | Matchup | Rating | Model margin | Chance of winning | Polling average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-01 | Clyde Jones D vs. Jerry Carl R Open | Solid R | R+26.2 | D 0.7% · R 99.3% | No district polls |
| AL-02 | Shomari Figures D vs. Rhett Marques R D incumbent | Toss-up | R+2.6 | D 39.1% · R 60.9% | R+0.2 3 polls |
| AL-03 | Lee McInnis D vs. Mike Rogers R R incumbent | Solid R | R+38.1 | D <0.1% · R >99.9% | No district polls |
| AL-04 | Amanda Pusczek D vs. Robert Aderholt R R incumbent | Solid R | R+57.8 | D <0.1% · R >99.9% | No district polls |
| AL-05 | Andrew Sneed D vs. Dale Strong R R incumbent | Solid R | R+20.5 | D 2.6% · R 97.4% | No district polls |
| AL-06 | Maurice Mercer D vs. Gary Palmer R R incumbent | Solid R | R+26.0 | D 0.8% · R 99.2% | No district polls |
| AL-07 | Terri Sewell D vs. Ammie Akin R D incumbent | Solid D | D+28.8 | D 99.6% · R 0.4% | No district polls |
Polling inputs
District polls
3 included surveys across 1 district, newest first.
| Field dates | District | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24–Aug 31, 2026 | AL-02 | Tulchin Research | LV | D 47.0% · R 47.0% |
| Jul 29–Jul 30, 2026 | AL-02 | DCCC Targeting Team | 421.0 LV | D 46.0% · R 46.0% |
| Jun 22–Jun 25, 2026 | AL-02 | Impact Research | 400.0 LV | D 44.0% · R 45.0% |