Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 27, 2026
Arkansas Senate Forecast
‹ See all Senate racesHallie Shoffner, a farmer and advocate for rural communities, is challenging Senator Tom Cotton. Cotton has become a familiar national voice for Arkansas Republicans; Shoffner’s path runs through a state that has steadily moved right in federal contests.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- R+15.56
- Rating
- Safe R
- Polling average
- R+5.86
- Fundamentals
- R+24.64
- Matchup
- Hallie Shoffner vs. Tom Cotton
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
R+5.86
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded Aug 14–Aug 18, 2026 | JL Partners | 803 LV | D Hallie Shoffner 35% · R Tom Cotton 51% · O Jeff Wadlin 4% |
| Fielded Aug 11–Aug 12, 2026 | Hendrix College | 1,217 LV | D Hallie Shoffner 47.4% · R Tom Cotton 44% · O Jeff Wadlin 2.95% |
| Fielded Aug 9, 2026 | Public Policy Polling | 569 AV | D Hallie Shoffner 45% · R Tom Cotton 46% |
| Fielded Jul 25, 2026 | 2040 Strategy Group (D) | 586 LV | D Hallie Shoffner 43% · R Tom Cotton 46% |
| Fielded Feb 9, 2026 | GrayHouse (R) | 550 LV | D Hallie Shoffner 36% · R Tom Cotton 58% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.