COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne

Election Day Nov. 3

Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25

Arkansas House Forecast

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Arkansas elects 4 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 0 districts as favoring Democrats, 4 as favoring Republicans.

Delegation outlook

Republicans lead in 4 of 4 districts

  • Lean R 1
  • Solid R 3

Forecast summary

Seats
4
Toss-ups
0
Not rated Solid
1
Districts with polls
1 of 4
Closest district
AR-02 R+6.6

District map

Arkansas congressional districts

Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.

Loading district boundaries…

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R

Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.

All races

Every district in the state, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning.

AR-02R incumbent
Lean R
Chris Jones D25.4%
French Hill R74.6%

R+6.6 model margin · 2 district polls

AR-03R incumbent
Solid R
Robb Ryerse D2.0%
Steve Womack R98.0%

R+21.4 model margin · No district polls

AR-04R incumbent
Solid R
James Russell D<0.1%
Bruce Westerman R>99.9%

R+34.7 model margin · No district polls

AR-01R incumbent
Solid R
Terri Yarbrough Green D<0.1%
Rick Crawford R>99.9%

R+39.8 model margin · No district polls

District forecast

AR-02 · R incumbent

Arkansas's 2nd District

Jones 25.4% · Hill 74.6% chance of winning

Model margin
R+6.6
Rating
Lean R
Polling average
D+3.7
Fundamentals
R+9.3
Matchup
Chris Jones vs. French Hill

How the forecast is built

Polling average D+3.7 2 district polls
Fundamentals R+9.3 Inputs listed below
Projected margin R+6.6 Published model output

Polling blend (published): 33.9%

Fundamentals inputs

2024 presidential margin
R+15.5
Relative district lean
R+15.1
Generic ballot
D+8.3
National environment
D+8.3
Incumbency
R+2.4
Candidate
None
Fundraising
None
Simple fundamentals
R+6.8
Full fundamentals
R+9.3
Fundamentals blend weight
50.0%
Total uncertainty
±10.2 pts

Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.

Polling inputs

District polls

2 included surveys across 1 district, newest first.

Field datesDistrictPollsterSampleResults
Aug 11–Aug 12, 2026AR-02Hendrix College1,112.0 LVD 48.0% · R 44.0%
May 8, 2026AR-022040 Strategy Group (D)660.0 LVD 46.0% · R 43.0%

‹ All 435 House districts