Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Arizona House Forecast
‹ See all House racesArizona elects 9 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 4 districts as favoring Democrats, 4 as favoring Republicans and 1 as a toss-up.
Delegation outlook
Democrats lead in 5 of 9 districts
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 9
- Toss-ups
- 1
- Not rated Solid
- 5
- Districts with polls
- 3 of 9
- Closest district
- AZ-06 D+3.5
District map
Arizona congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
Loading district boundaries…
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
Races to watch
Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.
AZ-06R incumbent
JoAnna Mendoza D65.8%
Juan Ciscomani R34.2%
D+3.5 model margin · 3 district polls
AZ-01Open
Amish Shah D66.1%
Jay Feely R33.9%
D+3.9 model margin · 1 district poll
AZ-02R incumbent
Jonathan Nez D24.9%
Eli Crane R75.1%
R+5.7 model margin · 2 district polls
AZ-08R incumbent
Bernadette Greene Placentia D13.8%
Abraham Hamadeh R86.2%
R+11.3 model margin · No district polls
AZ-05Open
Elizabeth Lee D10.0%
Mark Lamb R90.0%
R+13.3 model margin · No district polls
AZ-06 · R incumbent · Model record under review
Arizona's 6th District
Mendoza 65.8% · Ciscomani 34.2% chance of winning
- Model margin
- D+3.5
- Rating
- Toss-up
- Polling average
- D+2.1
- Fundamentals
- D+5.4
- Matchup
- JoAnna Mendoza vs. Juan Ciscomani
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 13.7%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+0.7
- Relative district lean
- R+0.8
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- R+2.4
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- D+7.5
- Full fundamentals
- D+5.4
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 50.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±8.9 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Every district
All 9 Arizona districts
| District | Matchup | Rating | Model margin | Chance of winning | Polling average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-01 | Amish Shah D vs. Jay Feely R Open | Lean D | D+3.9 | D 66.1% · R 33.9% | D+2.8 1 poll |
| AZ-02 | Jonathan Nez D vs. Eli Crane R R incumbent | Lean R | R+5.7 | D 24.9% · R 75.1% | R+4.1 2 polls |
| AZ-03 | Yassamin Ansari D vs. No Republican nominee R D incumbent | Solid D | D+55.6 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| AZ-04 | Greg Stanton D vs. Zuhdi Jasser R Open | Solid D | D+17.6 | D 95.2% · R 4.8% | No district polls |
| AZ-05 | Elizabeth Lee D vs. Mark Lamb R Open | Likely R | R+13.3 | D 10.0% · R 90.0% | No district polls |
| AZ-06 | JoAnna Mendoza D vs. Juan Ciscomani R R incumbent | Toss-up | D+3.5 | D 65.8% · R 34.2% | D+2.1 3 polls |
| AZ-07 | Adelita Grijalva D vs. Daniel Butierez R D incumbent | Solid D | D+37.6 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| AZ-08 | Bernadette Greene Placentia D vs. Abraham Hamadeh R R incumbent | Likely R | R+11.3 | D 13.8% · R 86.2% | No district polls |
| AZ-09 | Dani Sterbinsky D vs. Paul Gosar R R incumbent | Solid R | R+23.2 | D 1.2% · R 98.8% | No district polls |
Polling inputs
District polls
6 included surveys across 3 districts, newest first.
| Field dates | District | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | AZ-01 | FirstStrategic | 400.0 LV | D 44.4% · R 41.6% |
| Aug 21–Aug 24, 2026 | AZ-02 | GBAO | 500.0 LV | D 44.0% · R 46.0% |
| Jun 15, 2026 | AZ-02 | GBAO (D) | 500.0 LV | D 41.0% · R 44.0% |
| Jun 11, 2026 | AZ-06 | Normington Petts | 500.0 LV | D 47.0% · R 45.0% |
| Mar 14, 2026 | AZ-06 | Ragnar Research Partners | 400.0 LV | D 47.0% · R 44.0% |
| Oct 14–Oct 15, 2025 | AZ-06 | PPP | 561.0 RV | D 42.0% · R 41.0% |