COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne

Election Day Nov. 3

Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25

California House Forecast

‹ See all House races

California elects 52 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 48 districts as favoring Democrats, 4 as favoring Republicans.

Delegation outlook

Democrats lead in 48 of 52 districts

  • Solid D 43
  • Likely D 4
  • Lean D 1
  • Likely R 2
  • Solid R 2

Forecast summary

Seats
52
Toss-ups
0
Not rated Solid
7
Districts with polls
4 of 52
Closest district
CA-22 D+4.5

District map

California congressional districts

Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.

Loading district boundaries…

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R

Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.

Races to watch

Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.

CA-22R incumbent
Lean D
Randy Villegas D69.8%
David Valadao R30.2%

D+4.5 model margin · 1 district poll

CA-48Open
Likely D
Marni von Wilpert D78.6%
Jim Desmond R21.4%

D+7.5 model margin · 3 district polls

CA-13D incumbent
Likely D
Adam Gray D78.6%
Kevin Lincoln R21.4%

D+8.4 model margin · No district polls

CA-06Open
Likely D
Richard Pan D87.0%
N/A R13.0%

D+12.0 model margin · 1 district poll

CA-23R incumbent
Likely R
Tessa Lynn Hodge D9.8%
Jay Obernolte R90.2%

R+13.6 model margin · No district polls

CA-45D incumbent
Likely D
Derek Tran D90.3%
Chuong Vo R9.7%

D+13.8 model margin · No district polls

CA-05R incumbent
Likely R
Michael Masuda D8.4%
Tom McClintock R91.6%

R+14.5 model margin · No district polls

District forecast

CA-22 · R incumbent · Model record under review

California's 22nd District

Villegas 69.8% · Valadao 30.2% chance of winning

Model margin
D+4.5
Rating
Lean D
Polling average
D+4.0
Fundamentals
D+6.7
Matchup
Randy Villegas vs. David Valadao

How the forecast is built

Polling average D+4.0 1 district poll
Fundamentals D+6.7 Inputs listed below
Projected margin D+4.5 Published model output

Polling blend (published): 10.9%

Fundamentals inputs

2024 presidential margin
R+1.9
Relative district lean
R+0.4
Generic ballot
D+8.3
National environment
D+8.3
Incumbency
R+1.2
Candidate
None
Fundraising
None
Simple fundamentals
D+7.9
Full fundamentals
D+6.7
Fundamentals blend weight
35.0%
Total uncertainty
±9.0 pts

Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.

Every district

All 52 California districts

California House districts with rating, model margin, chance of winning and polling
DistrictMatchupRatingModel marginChance of winningPolling average
CA-01Mike McGuire D vs. James Gallagher R
R incumbent		Solid DD+20.8D 97.5% · R 2.5%No district polls
CA-02Jared Huffman D vs. Robin Littau R
D incumbent		Solid DD+35.6D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
CA-03Ami Bera D vs. Robb Tucker R
D incumbent		Solid DD+21.2D 97.6% · R 2.4%No district polls
CA-04Eric Jones / Mike Thompson D only
D incumbent		Solid DD finalists only—No district polls
CA-05Michael Masuda D vs. Tom McClintock R
R incumbent		Likely RR+14.5D 8.4% · R 91.6%No district polls
CA-06Richard Pan D vs. N/A R
Open		Likely DD+12.0D 87.0% · R 13.0%D+2.0 1 poll
CA-07Doris Matsui / Mai Vang D only
Open		Solid DD finalists only—No district polls
CA-08John Garamendi D vs. Rudy Recile R
D incumbent		Solid DD+45.1D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
CA-09Josh Harder D vs. John McBride R
D incumbent		Solid DD+22.4D 98.2% · R 1.8%No district polls
CA-10Mark DeSaulnier D vs. Jeff Frese R
D incumbent		Solid DD+44.5D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
CA-11Connie Chan / Scott Wiener D only
Open		Solid DD finalists only—No district polls
CA-12Jamie Joyce / Lateefah Simon D only
D incumbent		Solid DD finalists only—No district polls
CA-13Adam Gray D vs. Kevin Lincoln R
D incumbent		Likely DD+8.4D 78.6% · R 21.4%No district polls
CA-14Melissa Hernandez / Aisha Wahab D only
Open		Solid DD finalists only—No district polls
CA-15Kevin Mullin D vs. Charles Hoelter R
D incumbent		Solid DD+58.9D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
CA-16Sam Liccardo D vs. Peter Soule R
D incumbent		Solid DD+59.1D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
CA-17Ro Khanna D vs. Ritesh Tandon R
D incumbent		Solid DD+50.0D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
CA-18Zoe Lofgren D vs. Shane Lewis R
D incumbent		Solid DD+39.5D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
CA-19Jimmy Panetta D vs. Peter Coe Verbica R
D incumbent		Solid DD+45.4D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
CA-20Sandra Van Scotter D vs. Vince Fong R
R incumbent		Solid RR+23.6D 1.2% · R 98.8%No district polls
CA-21Jim Costa D vs. Kyle Kirkland R
D incumbent		Solid DD+17.9D 95.4% · R 4.6%No district polls
CA-22Randy Villegas D vs. David Valadao R
R incumbent		Lean DD+4.5D 69.8% · R 30.2%D+4.0 1 poll
CA-23Tessa Lynn Hodge D vs. Jay Obernolte R
R incumbent		Likely RR+13.6D 9.8% · R 90.2%No district polls
CA-24Salud Carbajal D vs. Bob Smith R
D incumbent		Solid DD+35.9D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
CA-25Raul Ruiz D vs. Joe Males R
D incumbent		Solid DD+17.8D 95.4% · R 4.6%No district polls
CA-26Jacqui Irwin D vs. Sam Gallucci R
Open		Solid DD+25.1D 99.0% · R 1.0%No district polls
CA-27George Whitesides D vs. Jason Gibbs R
D incumbent		Solid DD+20.7D 97.5% · R 2.5%No district polls
CA-28Judy Chu D vs. April Verlato R
D incumbent		Solid DD+36.3D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
CA-29Angélica María Dueñas / Luz Maria Rivas D only
Open		Solid DD finalists only—No district polls
CA-30Laura Friedman D vs. Scott Meyers R
D incumbent		Solid DD+51.0D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
CA-31Gil Cisneros D vs. Eric Ching R
D incumbent		Solid DD+23.2D 98.5% · R 1.5%No district polls
CA-32Brad Sherman D vs. Larry Thompson R
D incumbent		Solid DD+36.0D 99.9% · R 0.1%No district polls
CA-33Pete Aguilar D vs. Stephanie Vargas R
D incumbent		Solid DD+20.8D 97.4% · R 2.6%No district polls
CA-34Jimmy Gomez / Angela Gonzales-Torres D only
D incumbent		Solid DD finalists only—No district polls
CA-35Norma Torres D vs. Mike Cargile R
D incumbent		Solid DD+18.8D 96.2% · R 3.8%No district polls
CA-36Ted Lieu D vs. Houston Brignano R
D incumbent		Solid DD+50.1D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
CA-37Sydney Kamlager-Dove / Samantha Mota D only
D incumbent		Solid DD finalists only—No district polls
CA-38Hilda Solis D vs. Pedro Casas R
D incumbent		Solid DD+23.3D 98.8% · R 1.2%No district polls
CA-39Mark Takano D vs. Steve Manos R
D incumbent		Solid DD+20.5D 97.2% · R 2.8%No district polls
CA-40Ken Calvert / Young Kim R only
Open		Solid RR finalists only—No district polls
CA-41Linda Sanchez D vs. Mitch Clemmons R
D incumbent		Solid DD+25.2D 99.2% · R 0.8%No district polls
CA-42Robert Garcia D vs. Brian Burley R
D incumbent		Solid DD+24.1D 98.9% · R 1.1%No district polls
CA-43Maxine Waters D vs. Cristian Morales R
D incumbent		Solid DD+60.0D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
CA-44Nanette Barragán D vs. Genevieve Angel R
D incumbent		Solid DD+46.2D >99.9% · R <0.1%No district polls
CA-45Derek Tran D vs. Chuong Vo R
D incumbent		Likely DD+13.8D 90.3% · R 9.7%No district polls
CA-46Lou Correa D vs. David Pan R
D incumbent		Solid DD+27.2D 99.4% · R 0.6%No district polls
CA-47Dave Min D vs. Jenny Le Roux R
D incumbent		Solid DD+21.1D 97.8% · R 2.2%No district polls
CA-48Marni von Wilpert D vs. Jim Desmond R
Open		Likely DD+7.5D 78.6% · R 21.4%D+6.2 3 polls
CA-49Mike Levin D vs. Armen Kurdian R
D incumbent		Solid DD+21.1D 97.0% · R 3.0%D+2.0 1 poll
CA-50Scott Peters D vs. Steve Cohen R
D incumbent		Solid DD+29.3D 99.7% · R 0.3%No district polls
CA-51Sara Jacobs D vs. Ricardo Cabrera R
D incumbent		Solid DD+29.3D 99.7% · R 0.3%No district polls
CA-52Juan Vargas D vs. Jeff Belle R
D incumbent		Solid DD+28.6D 99.6% · R 0.4%No district polls

Polling inputs

District polls

6 included surveys across 4 districts, newest first.

Field datesDistrictPollsterSampleResults
Oct 1–Oct 7, 2026CA-48SurveyUSA518.0 LVD 47.0% · R 38.0%
Aug 27–Sep 1, 2026CA-48SurveyUSA522.0 LVD 45.0% · R 42.0%
Jul 13–Jul 16, 2026CA-06Bullfinch Group741.0 LVD 39.0% · R 35.0%
Jul 14, 2026CA-49Lake Research Partners500.0 LVD 48.0% · R 46.0%
Jul 9–Jul 14, 2026CA-48Lake Research Partners500.0 LVD 48.0% · R 46.0%
Jun 21, 2026CA-22Tulchin Research800.0 LVD 48.0% · R 44.0%

‹ All 435 House districts