Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Colorado House Forecast
‹ See all House racesColorado elects 8 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 4 districts as favoring Democrats, 1 as favoring Republicans and 3 as toss-ups.
Delegation outlook
Democrats lead in 5 of 8 districts
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 8
- Toss-ups
- 3
- Not rated Solid
- 4
- Districts with polls
- 4 of 8
- Closest district
- CO-08 D+3.2
District map
Colorado congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
Loading district boundaries…
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
Races to watch
Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.
CO-08R incumbent
Manny Rutinel D63.3%
Gabe Evans R36.7%
D+3.2 model margin · 1 district poll
CO-03R incumbent
Dwayne Romero D35.4%
Jeff Hurd R64.6%
R+3.3 model margin · 3 district polls
CO-05R incumbent
Jessica Killin D35.0%
Jeff Crank R65.0%
R+3.4 model margin · 2 district polls
CO-04R incumbent
Eileen Laubacher D11.3%
Lauren Boebert R88.7%
R+10.6 model margin · 1 district poll
CO-08 · R incumbent · Model record under review
Colorado's 8th District
Rutinel 63.3% · Evans 36.7% chance of winning
- Model margin
- D+3.2
- Rating
- Toss-up
- Polling average
- R+1.7
- Fundamentals
- D+6.5
- Matchup
- Manny Rutinel vs. Gabe Evans
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 24.5%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+1.8
- Relative district lean
- R+0.2
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- R+2.4
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- D+8.1
- Full fundamentals
- D+6.5
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 50.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±9.5 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Every district
All 8 Colorado districts
| District | Matchup | Rating | Model margin | Chance of winning | Polling average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO-01 | Melat Kiros D vs. Christy Peterson R Open | Solid D | D+66.1 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| CO-02 | Joe Neguse D vs. Kelley Dennison R D incumbent | Solid D | D+51.7 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| CO-03 | Dwayne Romero D vs. Jeff Hurd R R incumbent | Toss-up | R+3.3 | D 35.4% · R 64.6% | R+1.5 3 polls |
| CO-04 | Eileen Laubacher D vs. Lauren Boebert R R incumbent | Likely R | R+10.6 | D 11.3% · R 88.7% | R+5.0 1 poll |
| CO-05 | Jessica Killin D vs. Jeff Crank R R incumbent | Toss-up | R+3.4 | D 35.0% · R 65.0% | R+1.0 2 polls |
| CO-06 | Jason Crow D vs. Mel Tewahade R D incumbent | Solid D | D+32.6 | D 99.9% · R 0.1% | No district polls |
| CO-07 | Brittany Pettersen D vs. Tim Bennett R D incumbent | Solid D | D+26.3 | D 99.3% · R 0.7% | No district polls |
| CO-08 | Manny Rutinel D vs. Gabe Evans R R incumbent | Toss-up | D+3.2 | D 63.3% · R 36.7% | R+1.7 1 poll |
Polling inputs
District polls
7 included surveys across 4 districts, newest first.
| Field dates | District | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21–Sep 24, 2026 | CO-04 | Impact Research | 403.0 LV | D 40.0% · R 45.0% |
| Sep 16–Sep 17, 2026 | CO-08 | McLaughlin & Associates | 400.0 LV | D 46.3% · R 48.0% |
| Jul 23, 2026 | CO-03 | Keating Research | 500.0 LV | D 45.0% · R 46.0% |
| Jul 21, 2026 | CO-05 | Global Strategy Group | 450.0 LV | D 44.0% · R 45.0% |
| Mar 12, 2026 | CO-03 | Ragnar Research Partners | 400.0 LV | D 41.0% · R 46.0% |
| Jan 12, 2026 | CO-03 | Expedition Strategies | 400.0 LV | D 39.0% · R 48.0% |
| Oct 30–Nov 3, 2025 | CO-05 | Global Strategy Group | 450.0 LV | D 40.0% · R 43.0% |