COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne

Election Day Nov. 3

Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25

Connecticut House Forecast

‹ See all House races

Connecticut elects 5 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 5 districts as favoring Democrats, 0 as favoring Republicans.

Delegation outlook

Democrats lead in 5 of 5 districts

  • Solid D 5

Forecast summary

Seats
5
Toss-ups
0
Not rated Solid
0
Districts with polls
0 of 5
Closest district
CT-05 D+18.2

District map

Connecticut congressional districts

Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.

Loading district boundaries…

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R

Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.

All races

Every district in the state, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning.

CT-05D incumbent
Solid D
Jahana Hayes D96.1%
Chris Shea R3.9%

D+18.2 model margin · No district polls

CT-02D incumbent
Solid D
Joe Courtney D98.8%
George Austin R1.2%

D+23.4 model margin · No district polls

CT-03D incumbent
Solid D
Rosa DeLauro D99.7%
Christopher Lancia R0.3%

D+28.9 model margin · No district polls

CT-01Open
Solid D
Luke Bronin D>99.9%
Amy Chai R<0.1%

D+34.2 model margin · No district polls

CT-04D incumbent
Solid D
Jim Himes D>99.9%
Michael Goldstein R<0.1%

D+36.6 model margin · No district polls

District forecast

CT-05 · D incumbent · Model record under review

Connecticut's 5th District

Hayes 96.1% · Shea 3.9% chance of winning

Model margin
D+18.2
Rating
Solid D
Polling average
No district polls
Fundamentals
D+17.6
Matchup
Jahana Hayes vs. Chris Shea

How the forecast is built

Polling average No polls No included district polls
Fundamentals D+17.6 Inputs listed below
Projected margin D+18.2 Published model output

Polling blend (published): 0.0%

Fundamentals inputs

2024 presidential margin
D+5.6
Relative district lean
D+6.8
Generic ballot
D+8.3
National environment
D+8.3
Incumbency
D+2.4
Candidate
None
Fundraising
None
Simple fundamentals
D+15.1
Full fundamentals
D+17.6
Fundamentals blend weight
50.0%
Total uncertainty
±10.5 pts

Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.

‹ All 435 House districts