Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 27, 2026
Florida Senate Forecast
‹ See all Senate racesState Representative Angie Nixon is challenging Senator Ashley Moody, Florida’s former attorney general. The race asks whether Democrats can regain their footing in a state where retirees, fast-growing suburbs and a powerful Republican organization have reshaped the map.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- R+6.97
- Rating
- Likely R
- Polling average
- R+8.11
- Fundamentals
- R+5.65
- Matchup
- Angie Nixon vs. Ashley Moody
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
R+8.11
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded Sep 20–Sep 21, 2026 | InsiderAdvantage | 600 LV | D Angie Nixon 42% · R Ashley Moody 49% · O Other / undecided 9% |
| Fielded Sep 11, 2026 | Quantus Insights | Not reported LV | D Angie Nixon 43% · R Ashley Moody 50% |
| Fielded Jul 20, 2026 | University of North Florida | 848 LV | D Angie Nixon 42% · R Ashley Moody 50% |
| Fielded Apr 26, 2026 | Stetson University | 848 LV | D Angie Nixon 38% · R Ashley Moody 51% |
| Fielded Apr 2, 2026 | Emerson College | 1,125 LV | D Angie Nixon 36% · R Ashley Moody 47% |
| Fielded Mar 4, 2026 | University of North Florida | 786 LV | D Angie Nixon 38% · R Ashley Moody 46% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.