Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25

Florida House Forecast

Florida elects 28 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 4 districts as favoring Democrats, 21 as favoring Republicans and 3 as toss-ups.

Delegation outlook

Republicans lead in 22 of 28 districts

Solid D 4
Toss-up 3
Lean R 5
Likely R 11
Solid R 5

Seats: 28
Toss-ups: 3
Not rated Solid: 19
Districts with polls: 9 of 28
Closest district: FL-22 R+0.6

District map

Florida congressional districts

Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.

Loading district boundaries…

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.

Races to watch

Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.

FL-22Open

Toss-up

Pia Dandiya D47.7%

Casey Askar R52.3%

R+0.6 model margin · 2 district polls

FL-25D incumbent

Toss-up

Jared Moskowitz D55.3%

Scott Singer R44.7%

D+1.3 model margin · No district polls

D+1.4 model margin · 1 district poll

FL-27R incumbent

Lean R

Eliott Rodriguez D34.4%

Maria Salazar R65.6%

R+3.8 model margin · 2 district polls

FL-13R incumbent

Lean R

Leela Gray D33.0%

Anna Paulina Luna R67.0%

R+3.9 model margin · 4 district polls

FL-16Open

Lean R

Kelly Kirschner D29.6%

Sydney Gruters R70.4%

R+4.9 model margin · 1 district poll

FL-07Open

Lean R

Bale Dalton D31.4%

Ryan Elijah R68.6%

R+5.2 model margin · No district polls

R+6.8 model margin · 1 district poll

FL-04R incumbent

Likely R

LaShonda Holloway D22.4%

Aaron Bean R77.6%

R+8.3 model margin · No district polls

FL-11Open

Likely R

James Pericola D18.2%

Joe Strada R81.8%

R+8.7 model margin · 1 district poll

FL-08R incumbent

Likely R

Jennifer Jenkins D11.8%

Mike Haridopolos R88.2%

R+10.7 model margin · 1 district poll

FL-12R incumbent

Likely R

Kimberly Overman D14.9%

Gus Bilirakis R85.1%

R+10.8 model margin · No district polls

District forecast

District

FL-22 · Open · Model record under review

Florida's 22nd District

Dandiya 47.7% · Askar 52.3% chance of winning

Model margin: R+0.6
Rating: Toss-up
Polling average: R+0.2
Fundamentals: R+0.5
Matchup: Pia Dandiya vs. Casey Askar

How the forecast is built

Polling average R+0.2 2 district polls

Fundamentals R+0.5 Inputs listed below

Projected margin R+0.6 Published model output

Polling blend (published): 38.7%

Fundamentals inputs

2024 presidential margin: R+10.3
Relative district lean: R+8.8
Generic ballot: D+8.3
National environment: D+8.3
Incumbency: None
Candidate: None
Fundraising: None
Simple fundamentals: R+0.5
Full fundamentals: R+0.5
Fundamentals blend weight: 35.0%
Total uncertainty: ±8.7 pts

Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.

Every district

All 28 Florida districts

Florida House districts with rating, model margin, chance of winning and polling
District	Matchup	Rating	Model margin	Chance of winning	Polling average
FL-01	Gay Valimont D vs. Jimmy Patronis R R incumbent	Solid R	R+28.6	D 0.4% · R 99.6%	No district polls
FL-02	Amanda Green D vs. Austin Rogers R Open	Likely R	R+11.7	D 14.1% · R 85.9%	No district polls
FL-03	Seth Harp D vs. Kat Cammack R R incumbent	Likely R	R+14.8	D 8.2% · R 91.8%	No district polls
FL-04	LaShonda Holloway D vs. Aaron Bean R R incumbent	Likely R	R+8.3	D 22.4% · R 77.6%	No district polls
FL-05	Rachel Grage D vs. John Rutherford R R incumbent	Likely R	R+15.0	D 7.6% · R 92.4%	No district polls
FL-06	Eric Yonce D vs. Randy Fine R R incumbent	Solid R	R+21.5	D 2.2% · R 97.8%	No district polls
FL-07	Bale Dalton D vs. Ryan Elijah R Open	Lean R	R+5.2	D 31.4% · R 68.6%	No district polls
FL-08	Jennifer Jenkins D vs. Mike Haridopolos R R incumbent	Likely R	R+10.7	D 11.8% · R 88.2%	R+9.9 1 poll
FL-09	Darren Soto D vs. Dan Green R D incumbent	Lean R	R+6.8	D 24.7% · R 75.3%	Even 1 poll
FL-10	Maxwell Frost D vs. No Republican nominee R D incumbent	Solid D	D+35.0	D 99.9% · R 0.1%	No district polls
FL-11	James Pericola D vs. Joe Strada R Open	Likely R	R+8.7	D 18.2% · R 81.8%	R+0.3 1 poll
FL-12	Kimberly Overman D vs. Gus Bilirakis R R incumbent	Likely R	R+10.8	D 14.9% · R 85.1%	No district polls
FL-13	Leela Gray D vs. Anna Paulina Luna R R incumbent	Lean R	R+3.9	D 33.0% · R 67.0%	R+3.1 4 polls
FL-14	Kathy Castor D vs. Mike Beltran R D incumbent	Toss-up	D+1.4	D 56.4% · R 43.6%	D+8.7 1 poll
FL-15	Robert People D vs. Laurel Lee R R incumbent	Likely R	R+13.9	D 9.7% · R 90.3%	No district polls
FL-16	Kelly Kirschner D vs. Sydney Gruters R Open	Lean R	R+4.9	D 29.6% · R 70.4%	D+1.0 1 poll
FL-17	Matthew Montavon D vs. Greg Steube R R incumbent	Solid R	R+15.4	D 7.2% · R 92.8%	No district polls
FL-18	Curtis Gibson D vs. Scott Franklin R R incumbent	Likely R	R+11.8	D 13.1% · R 86.9%	No district polls
FL-19	Victor Arias D vs. Jim Schwartzel R Open	Solid R	R+20.4	D 3.0% · R 97.0%	No district polls
FL-20	Debbie Wasserman Schultz D vs. Brent Andersen R D incumbent	Solid D	D+48.2	D >99.9% · R <0.1%	No district polls
FL-21	James Martin D vs. Brian Mast R R incumbent	Likely R	R+11.4	D 14.4% · R 85.6%	No district polls
FL-22	Pia Dandiya D vs. Casey Askar R Open	Toss-up	R+0.6	D 47.7% · R 52.3%	R+0.2 2 polls
FL-23	Lois Frankel D vs. Deborah Adeimy R D incumbent	Solid D	D+24.7	D 99.0% · R 1.0%	No district polls
FL-24	Oliver Gilbert D vs. Te Brown R Open	Solid D	D+48.5	D >99.9% · R <0.1%	No district polls
FL-25	Jared Moskowitz D vs. Scott Singer R D incumbent	Toss-up	D+1.3	D 55.3% · R 44.7%	No district polls
FL-26	Nicole Locklin D vs. Mario Diaz-Balart R R incumbent	Likely R	R+12.9	D 11.2% · R 88.8%	No district polls
FL-27	Eliott Rodriguez D vs. Maria Salazar R R incumbent	Lean R	R+3.8	D 34.4% · R 65.6%	R+0.6 2 polls
FL-28	Phil Ehr D vs. Carlos Gimenez R R incumbent	Solid R	R+17.4	D 4.1% · R 95.9%	R+6.0 1 poll

Polling inputs

District polls

14 included surveys across 9 districts, newest first.

Field dates	District	Pollster	Sample	Results
Sep 8–Sep 13, 2026	FL-27	Tulchin Research	600.0 LV	D 46.0% · R 47.0%
Aug 24–Aug 31, 2026	FL-22	Impact Research	LV	D 46.0% · R 44.0%
Aug 25–Aug 30, 2026	FL-27	Bendixen & Amandi International	600.0 LV	D 45.0% · R 45.0%
Aug 24–Aug 30, 2026	FL-09	SEA Polling	400.0 LV	D 41.0% · R 41.0%
Aug 25–Aug 29, 2026	FL-16	SEA Polling	400.0 LV	D 40.0% · R 39.0%
Aug 25–Aug 27, 2026	FL-13	Hart Research Associates	LV	D 44.0% · R 43.0%
Aug 10–Aug 12, 2026	FL-22	Tavern Research	551.0 LV	D 50.0% · R 50.0%
Aug 4–Aug 6, 2026	FL-13	GQR	500.0 LV	D 44.0% · R 47.0%
Aug 4–Aug 6, 2026	FL-13	Fabrizio, Lee & Associates	400.0 LV	D 41.0% · R 49.0%
Jul 28–Jul 30, 2026	FL-11	MDW Communications	1,044.0 LV	D 41.8% · R 42.1%
Jul 17–Jul 18, 2026	FL-08	PPP	633.0 RV	D 35.0% · R 44.0%
Jul 14–Jul 15, 2026	FL-14	St. Pete Polls	469.0 LV	D 46.2% · R 37.5%
May 19–May 20, 2026	FL-13	PPP	616.0 LV	D 39.0% · R 41.0%
Mar 7, 2026	FL-28	MDW Communications	514.0 LV	D 40.0% · R 46.0%

‹ All 435 House districts

Republicans lead in 22 of 28 districts

Forecast summary

Florida congressional districts

Races to watch

How the forecast is built

Fundamentals inputs

All 28 Florida districts

District polls