Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 27, 2026
Georgia Senate Forecast
‹ See all Senate racesSenator Jon Ossoff is defending the seat he won in Georgia’s 2021 runoff against Representative Mike Collins. Georgia’s recent Senate contests have been decided in a political climate where Atlanta’s growth and the state’s rural strength pull in opposite directions.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- D+7.98
- Rating
- Likely D
- Polling average
- D+8.57
- Fundamentals
- D+6.74
- Matchup
- Jon Ossoff vs. Mike Collins
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
D+8.57
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded Sep 22–Sep 23, 2026 | InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | D Jon Ossoff 50% · R Mike Collins 42% · O Undecided 8% |
| Fielded Sep 15–Sep 18, 2026 | YouGov | 3,447 RV | D Jon Ossoff 51% · R Mike Collins 41% · O Other / undecided / no vote 8% |
| Fielded Sep 15, 2026 | Rasmussen Reports | Not reported LV | D Jon Ossoff 51% · R Mike Collins 42% |
| Fielded Sep 13, 2026 | Trafalgar Group* | Not reported LV | D Jon Ossoff 49% · R Mike Collins 43% |
| Fielded Aug 16–Aug 17, 2026 | Insider Advantage | 800 LV | D Jon Ossoff 50.1% · R Mike Collins 42.6% |
| Fielded Jul 23, 2026 | AARP | 1,060 LV | D Jon Ossoff 52% · R Mike Collins 43% |
| Fielded Jul 8, 2026 | Wick | 1,175 LV | D Jon Ossoff 47% · R Mike Collins 43% |
| Fielded Jul 1, 2026 | Fox News | 1,002 RV | D Jon Ossoff 56% · R Mike Collins 43% |
| Fielded Apr 21, 2026 | Echelon | 407 LV | D Jon Ossoff 51% · R Mike Collins 44% |
| Fielded Mar 5, 2026 | Emerson College | 1,000 LV | D Jon Ossoff 48% · R Mike Collins 43% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.