Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Georgia House Forecast
‹ See all House racesGeorgia elects 14 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 5 districts as favoring Democrats, 9 as favoring Republicans.
Delegation outlook
Republicans lead in 9 of 14 districts
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 14
- Toss-ups
- 0
- Not rated Solid
- 2
- Districts with polls
- 3 of 14
- Closest district
- GA-01 R+12.4
District map
Georgia congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
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- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
Races to watch
Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.
GA-01 · Open
Georgia's 1st District
Hollowell 11.9% · Kingston 88.1% chance of winning
- Model margin
- R+12.4
- Rating
- Likely R
- Polling average
- No district polls
- Fundamentals
- R+9.2
- Matchup
- Amanda Hollowell vs. Jim Kingston
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 0.0%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+15.8
- Relative district lean
- R+15.4
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- None
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- R+7.1
- Full fundamentals
- R+9.2
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 50.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±10.5 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Every district
All 14 Georgia districts
| District | Matchup | Rating | Model margin | Chance of winning | Polling average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GA-01 | Amanda Hollowell D vs. Jim Kingston R Open | Likely R | R+12.4 | D 11.9% · R 88.1% | No district polls |
| GA-02 | Sanford Bishop Jr. D vs. Matt Day R D incumbent | Solid D | D+21.8 | D 98.3% · R 1.7% | No district polls |
| GA-03 | Maura Keller D vs. Brian Jack R R incumbent | Solid R | R+19.7 | D 3.8% · R 96.2% | R+5.0 1 poll |
| GA-04 | Hank Johnson D vs. James Duffie R D incumbent | Solid D | D+64.5 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| GA-05 | Nikema Williams D vs. John Salvesen R D incumbent | Solid D | D+83.3 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| GA-06 | Lucy McBath D vs. Kevin Martin R D incumbent | Solid D | D+61.2 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| GA-07 | Anthony Kozycki D vs. Rich McCormick R R incumbent | Solid R | R+15.1 | D 7.8% · R 92.2% | D+0.3 2 polls |
| GA-08 | Kelly Esti D vs. Austin Scott R R incumbent | Solid R | R+26.2 | D 0.7% · R 99.3% | No district polls |
| GA-09 | Caitlyn Gegen D vs. Andrew Clyde R R incumbent | Solid R | R+28.6 | D 0.2% · R 99.8% | No district polls |
| GA-10 | Pamela DeLancy D vs. Houston Gaines R Open | Solid R | R+15.5 | D 6.7% · R 93.3% | No district polls |
| GA-11 | Chris Harden D vs. John Cowan R Open | Solid R | R+16.2 | D 7.4% · R 92.6% | D+2.0 1 poll |
| GA-12 | Ceretta Smith D vs. Rick Allen R R incumbent | Likely R | R+12.4 | D 11.8% · R 88.2% | No district polls |
| GA-13 | Jasmine Clark D vs. Jonathan Chavez R Open | Solid D | D+51.5 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| GA-14 | Shawn Harris D vs. Clayton Fuller R R incumbent | Solid R | R+26.8 | D 0.6% · R 99.4% | No district polls |
Polling inputs
District polls
4 included surveys across 3 districts, newest first.
| Field dates | District | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6–Oct 9, 2026 | GA-07 | 20/20 Insight | 457.0 LV | D 47.0% · R 45.0% |
| Oct 2–Oct 7, 2026 | GA-03 | VoteNexus | 301.0 LV | D 45.0% · R 50.0% |
| Aug 31–Sep 11, 2026 | GA-11 | Miller Consulting Services | 402.0 LV | D 42.0% · R 40.0% |
| Aug 20–Aug 26, 2026 | GA-07 | 20/20 Insight | 445.0 LV | D 43.0% · R 46.0% |