Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Hawaii House Forecast
‹ See all House racesHawaii elects 2 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 2 districts as favoring Democrats, 0 as favoring Republicans.
Delegation outlook
Democrats lead in 2 of 2 districts
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 2
- Toss-ups
- 0
- Not rated Solid
- 0
- Districts with polls
- 0 of 2
- Closest district
- HI-02 D+40.5
District map
Hawaii congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
Loading district boundaries…
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
All races
Every district in the state, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning.
HI-02 · D incumbent
Hawaii's 2nd District
Tokuda >99.9% · Awa <0.1% chance of winning
- Model margin
- D+40.5
- Rating
- Solid D
- Polling average
- No district polls
- Fundamentals
- D+40.5
- Matchup
- Jill Tokuda vs. Brenton Awa
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 0.0%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+21.6
- Relative district lean
- D+23.7
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- D+2.4
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- D+32.0
- Full fundamentals
- D+40.5
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 50.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±10.5 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.