COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne

Updated September 23, 2026 · model inputs through September 22, 2026 · latest included poll: September 20, 2026

Iowa Senate Forecast

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The forecast was recalculated with polling inputs through September 22. The projected margin moved R+0.93 → R+0.92 (D +0.01 points). The rating remains Toss-up. The county map is recalibrated to the September 22 statewide estimate; county baselines and geometry are retained.

Forecast summary

Model margin
R+0.92
Rating
Toss-up
Polling average
D+0.62
Fundamentals
R+5.64
Matchup
Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson

POLLING INPUTS

Polls behind the average

19 polls included in the workbook average. Newest first; latest included field date: September 20, 2026.

Polling average
D+0.62

Field dates Pollster Sample Results Model treatment
Sep 16–18, 2026Trafalgar Group1,089 LVD Josh Turek 42.1% · R Ashley Hinson 44% · O Thomas Laehn (3.4%) / Undecided (10.4%) 13.8%Included in the Senate polling average.
Sep 17–20, 2026Marist University1,050 RVD Josh Turek 50% · R Ashley Hinson 42% · O Undecided / other 7%Included in the Senate polling average.
2026-09-16–2026-09-16co/efficient— LVD Josh Turek 43% · R Ashley Hinson 48%Included in model
2026-09-15–2026-09-15Cygnal**— LVD Josh Turek 43% · R Ashley Hinson 43%Included in model
2026-09-11–2026-09-11YouGov— LVD Josh Turek 45% · R Ashley Hinson 43%Included in model
2026-09-11–2026-09-11Rasmussen Reports*— LVD Josh Turek 45% · R Ashley Hinson 40%Included in model
Fielded August 31–September 1, 2026Emerson750 LVD Josh Turek 45% · R Ashley Hinson 50% · O Other 5%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded August 27–August 31, 2026Global Strategy Group (D)800 LVD Josh Turek 46% · R Ashley Hinson 42% · O Other 6%Included in the live workbook polling blend.
August 29, 2026Abacus Data300 LVD Josh Turek 54% · R Ashley Hinson 45% · O Other 1%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded August 27–August 29, 2026Wedgewood Polls600 LVD Josh Turek 48% · R Ashley Hinson 50% · O Other 2%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded August 20–August 23, 2026Suffolk University500 LVD Josh Turek 41% · R Ashley Hinson 45%Included in the Senate polling average.
August 6, 2026Emerson712 LVD Josh Turek 45% · R Ashley Hinson 48%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded July 1–July 2, 2026Fox News1003 RVD Josh Turek 50% · R Ashley Hinson 46%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded July 1–July 2, 2026Siena College600 LVD Josh Turek 46% · R Ashley Hinson 48%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded June 26–June 27, 2026Cygnal600 LVD Josh Turek 44% · R Ashley Hinson 46%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded June 8–June 11, 2026Global Strategy Group (D*)1000 LVD Josh Turek 47% · R Ashley Hinson 45%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded June 3–June 4, 2026Public Policy Polling557 RVD Josh Turek 46% · R Ashley Hinson 46%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded April 21–April 22, 2026Echelon Inisghts377 LVD Josh Turek 46% · R Ashley Hinson 45%Included in the Senate polling average.
Fielded March 10–March 16, 2026GBAO1200 LVD Josh Turek 43% · R Ashley Hinson 47%Included in the Senate polling average.
Excluded polls
Field datesPollsterSampleResultsReason
Date unavailableCygnal—Missing start date • Missing end date • Missing sample size • Missing sample type • Missing major-party shares • Missing source URL • EXCLUDED
Date unavailableEchelon Inisghts—Missing start date • Missing end date • Missing sample size • Missing sample type • Missing major-party shares • Missing source URL • EXCLUDED
Date unavailableEmerson—Missing start date • Missing end date • Missing sample size • Missing sample type • Missing major-party shares • Missing source URL • EXCLUDED
Date unavailableFox News—Missing start date • Missing end date • Missing sample size • Missing sample type • Missing major-party shares • Missing source URL • EXCLUDED
Date unavailableSiena College—Missing start date • Missing end date • Missing sample size • Missing sample type • Missing major-party shares • Missing source URL • EXCLUDED

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

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