COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne
Final forecast · Nov. 3

Updated November 3, 2026 · model inputs through November 3, 2026

Iowa Senate Forecast

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State Representative Josh Turek, a four-time Paralympic gold medalist, is challenging Representative Ashley Hinson. Iowa has become more Republican in federal elections, making the state’s remaining ticket-splitting voters unusually important.

Forecast summary

Model margin
R+0.71
Rating
Toss-up
Polling average
D+0.47
Fundamentals
R+5.23
Matchup
Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson

FORECAST HISTORY

Chance of winning over time

No candidate win probabilities have been published from a frozen, label-verified simulation run yet.

FORECAST HISTORY

Model margin over time

Published model margins by release date.

MODEL BREAKDOWN

How the forecast is built

The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.

Polling average — — · —
Fundamentals — — · —
Projected margin — Published model output
Polling Fundamentals

Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.

POLLING INPUTS

Polls behind the average

Included surveys, newest first.

Polling average
D+0.47

Field dates Pollster Sample Results
Fielded Oct 26–Nov 1, 2026NY Times/Siena705 LVD Josh Turek 48% · R Ashley Hinson 47%
Fielded Oct 28–Nov 1, 2026AtlasIntel1,219 LVD Josh Turek 51% · R Ashley Hinson 48%
Fielded Oct 27–Oct 31, 2026Rasmussen Reports901 LVD Josh Turek 46% · R Ashley Hinson 47% · O Other 3%
Fielded Oct 28–Oct 31, 2026GrayHouse601 LVD Josh Turek 46% · R Ashley Hinson 48%
Fielded Oct 26–Oct 29, 2026YouGov2,020 LVD Josh Turek 50% · R Ashley Hinson 49%
Fielded Oct 28, 2026co/efficient1,020 LVD Josh Turek 46% · R Ashley Hinson 48%
Fielded Oct 21–Oct 22, 2026InsiderAdvantageLV · size n/aD Josh Turek 45% · R Ashley Hinson 47% · O Other 8%
Fielded Oct 15–Oct 19, 2026co/efficient863 LVD Josh Turek 45% · R Ashley Hinson 48% · O Other 2%
Fielded Oct 9–Oct 13, 2026Cook Political Report (New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group)602 LVD Josh Turek 46% · R Ashley Hinson 44% · O Other 1%
Fielded Oct 6–Oct 12, 2026YouGov2,245 LVD Josh Turek 47% · R Ashley Hinson 46% · O Other 2%
Fielded Oct 8–Oct 11, 2026MaristLV · size n/aD Josh Turek 48% · R Ashley Hinson 45% · O Other 2%
Fielded Oct 5–Oct 6, 2026Emerson College650 LVD Josh Turek 45% · R Ashley Hinson 47%
Fielded Sep 29–Oct 5, 2026CNN/SSRS801 LVD Josh Turek 43% · R Ashley Hinson 45%
Fielded Oct 1–Oct 4, 2026Suffolk University500 LVD Josh Turek 48% · R Ashley Hinson 43.6% · O Other 8.4%
Fielded Sep 28–Sep 30, 2026Rasmussen Reports1,048 LVD Josh Turek 47% · R Ashley Hinson 43% · O Other 3%
Fielded Sep 21–Sep 30, 2026NY Times/Siena615 LVD Josh Turek 47% · R Ashley Hinson 48% · O Other 5%
Fielded Sep 28–Sep 29, 2026Quantus Insights738 LVD Josh Turek 45.8% · R Ashley Hinson 47.1% · O Other 7.1%
Fielded Sep 24–Sep 28, 2026Fox News1,008 LVD Josh Turek 49% · R Ashley Hinson 47% · O Other 4%
Fielded Sep 22–Sep 23, 2026InsiderAdvantage1,200 LVD Josh Turek 47% · R Ashley Hinson 46% · O Other 7%
Fielded Sep 17–Sep 20, 2026Marist University1,050 RVD Josh Turek 50% · R Ashley Hinson 42% · O Other 7%
Fielded Sep 16–Sep 18, 2026Trafalgar Group1,089 LVD Josh Turek 42.1% · R Ashley Hinson 44% · O Other 13.8%
Fielded Sep 16, 2026co/efficientLV · size n/aD Josh Turek 43% · R Ashley Hinson 48%
Fielded Sep 15, 2026CygnalLV · size n/aD Josh Turek 43% · R Ashley Hinson 43%
Fielded Sep 11, 2026YouGovLV · size n/aD Josh Turek 45% · R Ashley Hinson 43%
Fielded Sep 11, 2026Rasmussen ReportsLV · size n/aD Josh Turek 45% · R Ashley Hinson 40%
Fielded Aug 31–Sep 1, 2026Emerson750 LVD Josh Turek 45% · R Ashley Hinson 50% · O Other 5%
Fielded Aug 27–Aug 31, 2026Global Strategy Group (D)800 LVD Josh Turek 46% · R Ashley Hinson 42% · O Other 6%
Fielded Aug 29, 2026Abacus Data300 LVD Josh Turek 54% · R Ashley Hinson 45% · O Other 1%
Fielded Aug 20–Aug 23, 2026Suffolk University500 LVD Josh Turek 41% · R Ashley Hinson 45%
Fielded Aug 6, 2026Emerson712 LVD Josh Turek 45% · R Ashley Hinson 48%
Fielded Jul 1–Jul 2, 2026Siena College600 LVD Josh Turek 46% · R Ashley Hinson 48%
Fielded Jul 1–Jul 2, 2026Fox News1,003 RVD Josh Turek 50% · R Ashley Hinson 46%
Fielded Jun 26–Jun 27, 2026Cygnal600 LVD Josh Turek 44% · R Ashley Hinson 46%
Fielded Jun 8–Jun 11, 2026Global Strategy Group (D)1,000 LVD Josh Turek 47% · R Ashley Hinson 45%
Fielded Jun 3–Jun 4, 2026Public Policy Polling557 RVD Josh Turek 46% · R Ashley Hinson 46%
Fielded Apr 21–Apr 22, 2026Echelon Inisghts377 LVD Josh Turek 46% · R Ashley Hinson 45%
Fielded Mar 10–Mar 16, 2026GBAO1,200 LVD Josh Turek 43% · R Ashley Hinson 47%

The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.

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