Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Iowa House Forecast
‹ See all House racesIowa elects 4 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 0 districts as favoring Democrats, 1 as favoring Republicans and 3 as toss-ups.
Delegation outlook
The 4 districts split evenly
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 4
- Toss-ups
- 3
- Not rated Solid
- 3
- Districts with polls
- 3 of 4
- Closest district
- IA-02 R+1.0
District map
Iowa congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
Loading district boundaries…
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
All races
Every district in the state, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning.
IA-02Open
Lindsay James D46.1%
Joe Mitchell R53.9%
R+1.0 model margin · 2 district polls
IA-01R incumbent
Christina Bohannan D60.4%
Mariannette Miller-Meeks R39.6%
D+2.3 model margin · 2 district polls
IA-03R incumbent
Sarah Trone Garriott D60.3%
Zach Nunn R39.7%
D+2.6 model margin · 1 district poll
IA-04Open
David Dawson D1.5%
Chris McGowan R98.5%
R+22.4 model margin · No district polls
IA-02 · Open
Iowa's 2nd District
James 46.1% · Mitchell 53.9% chance of winning
- Model margin
- R+1.0
- Rating
- Toss-up
- Polling average
- D+1.0
- Fundamentals
- R+1.9
- Matchup
- Lindsay James vs. Joe Mitchell
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 16.4%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+10.0
- Relative district lean
- R+8.6
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- None
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- R+0.3
- Full fundamentals
- R+1.9
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 50.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±8.9 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Polling inputs
District polls
5 included surveys across 3 districts, newest first.
| Field dates | District | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14–Jul 19, 2026 | IA-02 | Global Strategy Group | LV | D 46.0% · R 45.0% |
| Jul 13–Jul 16, 2026 | IA-01 | Bullfinch Group | 705.0 LV | D 40.0% · R 35.0% · O 11.0% |
| Apr 13–Apr 14, 2026 | IA-02 | Public Policy Polling | 675.0 RV | D 36.0% · R 33.0% |
| Mar 14, 2026 | IA-03 | Ragnar Research Partners | 400.0 LV | D 42.0% · R 48.0% |
| Jun 18–Jun 19, 2025 | IA-01 | Public Policy Polling | 555.0 RV | D 43.0% · R 39.0% |