Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Idaho House Forecast
‹ See all House racesIdaho elects 2 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 0 districts as favoring Democrats, 2 as favoring Republicans.
Delegation outlook
Republicans lead in 2 of 2 districts
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 2
- Toss-ups
- 0
- Not rated Solid
- 0
- Districts with polls
- 1 of 2
- Closest district
- ID-02 R+21.8
District map
Idaho congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
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- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
All races
Every district in the state, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning.
ID-02 · R incumbent
Idaho's 2nd District
Gilbreath 2.0% · Simpson 98.0% chance of winning
- Model margin
- R+21.8
- Rating
- Solid R
- Polling average
- No district polls
- Fundamentals
- R+21.8
- Matchup
- Ellie Gilbreath vs. Mike Simpson
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 0.0%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+26.7
- Relative district lean
- R+25.9
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- R+2.4
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- R+17.6
- Full fundamentals
- R+21.8
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 50.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±10.5 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Polling inputs
District polls
2 included surveys across 1 district, newest first.
| Field dates | District | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 28–Jul 30, 2026 | ID-01 | Change Research | LV | D 27.0% · R 48.0% |
| Jul 7–Jul 14, 2026 | ID-01 | SurveyUSA | 480.0 LV | D 35.0% · R 45.0% |