Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Illinois House Forecast
‹ See all House racesIllinois elects 17 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 14 districts as favoring Democrats, 3 as favoring Republicans.
Delegation outlook
Democrats lead in 14 of 17 districts
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 17
- Toss-ups
- 0
- Not rated Solid
- 0
- Districts with polls
- 1 of 17
- Closest district
- IL-16 R+17.6
District map
Illinois congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
Loading district boundaries…
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
Races to watch
Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.
IL-16 · R incumbent
Illinois's 16th District
Nolley 4.6% · LaHood 95.4% chance of winning
- Model margin
- R+17.6
- Rating
- Solid R
- Polling average
- No district polls
- Fundamentals
- R+16.7
- Matchup
- Paul Nolley vs. Darin LaHood
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 0.0%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+22.7
- Relative district lean
- R+22.6
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- R+2.4
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- R+14.3
- Full fundamentals
- R+16.7
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 50.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±10.5 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Every district
All 17 Illinois districts
| District | Matchup | Rating | Model margin | Chance of winning | Polling average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IL-01 | Jonathan Jackson D vs. Christian Maxwell R D incumbent | Solid D | D+45.3 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| IL-02 | Donna Miller D vs. Michael Noack R Open | Solid D | D+44.2 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| IL-03 | Delia Ramirez D vs. Angel Oakley R D incumbent | Solid D | D+46.1 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| IL-04 | Patty Garcia D vs. Lupe Castillo R Open | Solid D | D+40.3 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | D+17.0 1 poll |
| IL-05 | Mike Quigley D vs. Tommy Hanson R D incumbent | Solid D | D+49.5 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| IL-06 | Sean Casten D vs. Niki Conforti R D incumbent | Solid D | D+19.2 | D 96.9% · R 3.1% | No district polls |
| IL-07 | La Shawn Ford D vs. Chad Koppie R Open | Solid D | D+76.3 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| IL-08 | Melissa Bean D vs. Jennifer Davis R Open | Solid D | D+20.1 | D 97.4% · R 2.6% | No district polls |
| IL-09 | Daniel K. Biss D vs. John Elleson R Open | Solid D | D+46.6 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| IL-10 | Brad Schneider D vs. Carl Lambrecht R D incumbent | Solid D | D+33.5 | D 99.9% · R 0.1% | No district polls |
| IL-11 | Bill Foster D vs. Jeffrey Walter R D incumbent | Solid D | D+23.6 | D 98.7% · R 1.3% | No district polls |
| IL-12 | Julie Fortier D vs. Mike Bost R R incumbent | Solid R | R+38.6 | D <0.1% · R >99.9% | No district polls |
| IL-13 | Nikki Budzinski D vs. Jeff Wilson R D incumbent | Solid D | D+24.5 | D 99.1% · R 0.9% | No district polls |
| IL-14 | Lauren Underwood D vs. James Marter R D incumbent | Solid D | D+19.9 | D 96.9% · R 3.1% | No district polls |
| IL-15 | Jennifer Todd D vs. Mary Miller R R incumbent | Solid R | R+33.8 | D <0.1% · R >99.9% | No district polls |
| IL-16 | Paul Nolley D vs. Darin LaHood R R incumbent | Solid R | R+17.6 | D 4.6% · R 95.4% | No district polls |
| IL-17 | Eric Sorensen D vs. Dillan Vancil R D incumbent | Solid D | D+18.6 | D 96.1% · R 3.9% | No district polls |
Polling inputs
District polls
1 included survey across 1 district, newest first.
| Field dates | District | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31–Aug 3, 2026 | IL-04 | Bullfinch Group | 653.0 RV | D 34.0% · R 15.0% · O 13.0% |