Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25

Indiana House Forecast

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Indiana elects 9 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 2 districts as favoring Democrats, 7 as favoring Republicans.

Delegation outlook

Republicans lead in 7 of 9 districts

Solid D 2
Likely R 1
Solid R 6

Seats: 9
Toss-ups: 0
Not rated Solid: 1
Districts with polls: 1 of 9
Closest district: IN-05 R+10.0

District map

Indiana congressional districts

Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.

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Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.

Races to watch

Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.

IN-05R incumbent

J.D. Ford D15.3%

Victoria Spartz R84.7%

R+10.0 model margin · 1 district poll

IN-01D incumbent

Frank Mrvan D92.5%

Barb Regnitz R7.5%

D+15.0 model margin · No district polls

IN-02R incumbent

Jamee Decio D2.8%

Rudy Yakym R97.2%

R+20.0 model margin · No district polls

District forecast

District

IN-05 · R incumbent

Indiana's 5th District

Ford 15.3% · Spartz 84.7% chance of winning

Model margin: R+10.0
Rating: Likely R
Polling average: R+2.0
Fundamentals: R+11.0
Matchup: J.D. Ford vs. Victoria Spartz

How the forecast is built

Polling average R+2.0 1 district poll

Fundamentals R+11.0 Inputs listed below

Projected margin R+10.0 Published model output

Polling blend (published): 11.1%

Fundamentals inputs

2024 presidential margin: R+16.8
Relative district lean: R+16.8
Generic ballot: D+8.3
National environment: D+8.3
Incumbency: R+2.4
Candidate: None
Fundraising: None
Simple fundamentals: R+8.5
Full fundamentals: R+11.0
Fundamentals blend weight: 50.0%
Total uncertainty: ±9.7 pts

Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.

Every district

All 9 Indiana districts

Indiana House districts with rating, model margin, chance of winning and polling
District	Matchup	Rating	Model margin	Chance of winning	Polling average
IN-01	Frank Mrvan D vs. Barb Regnitz R D incumbent	Solid D	D+15.0	D 92.5% · R 7.5%	No district polls
IN-02	Jamee Decio D vs. Rudy Yakym R R incumbent	Solid R	R+20.0	D 2.8% · R 97.2%	No district polls
IN-03	Kelly Thompson D vs. Marlin Stutzman R R incumbent	Solid R	R+25.7	D 0.6% · R 99.4%	No district polls
IN-04	Drew Cox D vs. Jim Baird R R incumbent	Solid R	R+25.0	D 0.9% · R 99.1%	No district polls
IN-05	J.D. Ford D vs. Victoria Spartz R R incumbent	Likely R	R+10.0	D 15.3% · R 84.7%	R+2.0 1 poll
IN-06	Cynthia Wirth D vs. Jefferson Shreve R R incumbent	Solid R	R+26.1	D 0.6% · R 99.4%	No district polls
IN-07	André Carson D vs. Patrick McAuley R D incumbent	Solid D	D+52.8	D >99.9% · R <0.1%	No district polls
IN-08	Mary Allen D vs. Mark Messmer R R incumbent	Solid R	R+30.0	D 0.3% · R 99.7%	No district polls
IN-09	Brad Meyer D vs. Erin Houchin R R incumbent	Solid R	R+23.7	D 1.2% · R 98.8%	No district polls

Polling inputs

District polls

1 included survey across 1 district, newest first.

Field dates	District	Pollster	Sample	Results
Jul 16–Jul 20, 2026	IN-05	Impact Research	LV	D 46.0% · R 48.0%

‹ All 435 House districts