Updated September 29, 2026 · model inputs through September 27, 2026
Kansas Senate Forecast
‹ See all Senate racesPastor Adam Hamilton is challenging Senator Roger Marshall in a state that usually favors Republicans but has a history of making room for independent-minded voters. The contest turns on whether that streak of political independence extends to a party-line Senate race.
Forecast summary
- Model margin
- R+5.36
- Rating
- Likely R
- Polling average
- R+1.32
- Fundamentals
- R+10.92
- Matchup
- Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall
COUNTY MAP
County forecast
How the statewide forecast translates across counties.
County estimates apply the statewide forecast to 2024 presidential results. They are not separate county forecasts.
Baseline: 2024 presidential two-party results. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Methodology and limitations.
FORECAST HISTORY
Model margin over time
Forecast history will appear after the first recorded model release.
View the recorded forecast history table
| Model date | Model margin | Polling weight | Fundamentals weight | Polling average | Fundamentals |
|---|
POLLING
Polling average
Included surveys over time.
MODEL BREAKDOWN
How the forecast is built
The polling average and fundamentals are blended at their published weights.
Polling
Fundamentals
Other model inputs and adjustments—
Margins are D-minus-R points. Candidate strength is included in fundamentals; its separate score is not published. Values are rounded to two decimals.
POLLING INPUTS
Polls behind the average
Polling average
R+1.32
| Field dates | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fielded Sep 22–Sep 24, 2026 | Wedgewood Polls | 500 LV | D Adam Hamilton 50% · R Roger Marshall 48% · O David Graham (L) 2% |
| Fielded Sep 11, 2026 | co/efficient | Not reported LV | D Adam Hamilton 44% · R Roger Marshall 49% |
| Fielded Aug 12–Aug 16, 2026 | Global Strategy Group (D) | 800 LV | D Adam Hamilton 44% · R Roger Marshall 43% · O David Graham 5% |
| Fielded Aug 7–Aug 8, 2026 | Public Policy Polling (D) | 569 RV | D Adam Hamilton 45% · R Roger Marshall 46% |
| Fielded Jul 13, 2026 | GBAO (D) | 600 LV | D Adam Hamilton 43% · R Roger Marshall 47% |
| Fielded Jan 28, 2026 | Tavern Research | 1,013 LV | D Adam Hamilton 51% · R Roger Marshall 49% |
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.
The published average comes directly from the workbook. Polls are not equally weighted, and the browser does not recompute the forecast.