COYNTOSSby @achasecoyne

Election Day Nov. 3

Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25

Kansas House Forecast

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Kansas elects 4 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 1 district as favoring Democrats, 3 as favoring Republicans.

Delegation outlook

Republicans lead in 3 of 4 districts

  • Solid D 1
  • Likely R 1
  • Solid R 2

Forecast summary

Seats
4
Toss-ups
0
Not rated Solid
1
Districts with polls
0 of 4
Closest district
KS-02 R+14.6

District map

Kansas congressional districts

Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.

Loading district boundaries…

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R

Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.

All races

Every district in the state, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning.

KS-02R incumbent
Likely R
Don Coover D8.5%
Derek Schmidt R91.5%

R+14.6 model margin · No district polls

KS-03D incumbent
Solid D
Sharice Davids D96.3%
Eric Jenkins R3.7%

D+18.7 model margin · No district polls

KS-04R incumbent
Solid R
Katy Tyndell D3.5%
Ron Estes R96.5%

R+19.0 model margin · No district polls

KS-01R incumbent
Solid R
Lauren Reinhold D0.4%
Tracey Mann R99.6%

R+27.1 model margin · No district polls

District forecast

KS-02 · R incumbent · Model record under review

Kansas's 2nd District

Coover 8.5% · Schmidt 91.5% chance of winning

Model margin
R+14.6
Rating
Likely R
Polling average
No district polls
Fundamentals
R+12.3
Matchup
Don Coover vs. Derek Schmidt

How the forecast is built

Polling average No polls No included district polls
Fundamentals R+12.3 Inputs listed below
Projected margin R+14.6 Published model output

Polling blend (published): 0.0%

Fundamentals inputs

2024 presidential margin
R+19.7
Relative district lean
R+19.0
Generic ballot
D+8.3
National environment
D+8.3
Incumbency
R+2.4
Candidate
None
Fundraising
None
Simple fundamentals
R+10.7
Full fundamentals
R+12.3
Fundamentals blend weight
50.0%
Total uncertainty
±10.5 pts

Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.

‹ All 435 House districts