Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Kentucky House Forecast
‹ See all House racesKentucky elects 6 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 1 district as favoring Democrats, 4 as favoring Republicans and 1 as a toss-up.
Delegation outlook
Republicans lead in 5 of 6 districts
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 6
- Toss-ups
- 1
- Not rated Solid
- 1
- Districts with polls
- 1 of 6
- Closest district
- KY-06 R+1.7
District map
Kentucky congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
Loading district boundaries…
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
Races to watch
Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.
KY-06 · Open
Kentucky's 6th District
Dembo 41.9% · Alvarado 58.1% chance of winning
- Model margin
- R+1.7
- Rating
- Toss-up
- Polling average
- D+3.6
- Fundamentals
- R+9.1
- Matchup
- Zach Dembo vs. Ralph Alvarado
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 55.8%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+15.0
- Relative district lean
- R+14.1
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- None
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- R+5.8
- Full fundamentals
- R+9.1
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 50.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±8.3 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Every district
All 6 Kentucky districts
| District | Matchup | Rating | Model margin | Chance of winning | Polling average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KY-01 | Drew Williams D vs. James Comer Jr. R R incumbent | Solid R | R+40.6 | D <0.1% · R >99.9% | No district polls |
| KY-02 | Megan Wingfield D vs. Brett Guthrie R R incumbent | Solid R | R+35.7 | D <0.1% · R >99.9% | No district polls |
| KY-03 | Morgan McGarvey D vs. Maria Teresa Rodriguez R D incumbent | Solid D | D+33.2 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| KY-04 | Melissa Strange D vs. Ed Gallrein R Open | Solid R | R+26.6 | D 0.5% · R 99.5% | No district polls |
| KY-05 | Ned Pillersdorf D vs. Hal Rogers R R incumbent | Solid R | R+56.9 | D <0.1% · R >99.9% | No district polls |
| KY-06 | Zach Dembo D vs. Ralph Alvarado R Open | Toss-up | R+1.7 | D 41.9% · R 58.1% | D+3.6 7 polls |
Polling inputs
District polls
7 included surveys across 1 district, newest first.
| Field dates | District | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29–Oct 5, 2026 | KY-06 | Change Research | 524.0 LV | D 47.0% · R 38.0% |
| Sep 30–Oct 4, 2026 | KY-06 | Lake Research Partners | 400.0 LV | D 46.0% · R 40.0% · O 4.0% |
| Sep 25–Sep 30, 2026 | KY-06 | GQR | 401.0 LV | D 42.0% · R 37.0% |
| Aug 17–Aug 23, 2026 | KY-06 | Lake Research Partners | LV | D 45.0% · R 44.0% |
| Jul 30, 2026 | KY-06 | DCCC | 474.0 LV | D 47.0% · R 47.0% |
| Jun 24–Jun 28, 2026 | KY-06 | GQR | LV | D 39.0% · R 42.0% |
| Apr 25, 2026 | KY-06 | Public Policy Polling | 675.0 RV | D 37.0% · R 37.0% |