Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Louisiana House Forecast
‹ See all House racesLouisiana elects 6 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 1 district as favoring Democrats, 5 as favoring Republicans.
Delegation outlook
Republicans lead in 5 of 6 districts
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 6
- Toss-ups
- 0
- Not rated Solid
- 0
- Districts with polls
- 0 of 6
- Closest district
- LA-06 R+19.1
District map
Louisiana congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
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- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
Races to watch
Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.
LA-06 · D incumbent · Model record under review
Louisiana's 6th District
Fields 3.4% · Graves 96.6% chance of winning
- Model margin
- R+19.1
- Rating
- Solid R
- Polling average
- No district polls
- Fundamentals
- R+19.1
- Matchup
- Cleo Fields vs. Garret Graves
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 0.0%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+30.1
- Relative district lean
- R+28.6
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- D+1.2
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- R+20.3
- Full fundamentals
- R+19.1
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 35.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±10.6 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Every district
All 6 Louisiana districts
| District | Matchup | Rating | Model margin | Chance of winning | Polling average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA-01 | Lauren Jewett D vs. Steve Scalise R R incumbent | Solid R | R+29.6 | D 0.3% · R 99.7% | No district polls |
| LA-02 | Troy Carter D vs. Republican nominee TBD R D incumbent | Solid D | D+58.4 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| LA-03 | Democratic nominee TBD D vs. Clay Higgins R R incumbent | Solid R | R+27.4 | D 0.4% · R 99.6% | No district polls |
| LA-04 | Democratic nominee TBD D vs. Mike Johnson R R incumbent | Solid R | R+25.6 | D 0.8% · R 99.2% | No district polls |
| LA-05 | Democratic nominee TBD D vs. Republican nominee TBD R Open | Solid R | R+24.2 | D 1.2% · R 98.8% | No district polls |
| LA-06 | Cleo Fields D vs. Garret Graves R D incumbent | Solid R | R+19.1 | D 3.4% · R 96.6% | No district polls |