Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Massachusetts House Forecast
‹ See all House racesMassachusetts elects 9 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 9 districts as favoring Democrats, 0 as favoring Republicans.
Delegation outlook
Democrats lead in 9 of 9 districts
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 9
- Toss-ups
- 0
- Not rated Solid
- 0
- Districts with polls
- 0 of 9
- Closest district
- MA-09 D+24.6
District map
Massachusetts congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
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- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
Races to watch
Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.
MA-09 · D incumbent
Massachusetts's 9th District
Keating 98.8% · MacAllister 1.2% chance of winning
- Model margin
- D+24.6
- Rating
- Solid D
- Polling average
- No district polls
- Fundamentals
- D+24.6
- Matchup
- Bill Keating vs. R. Tyler MacAllister
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 0.0%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+10.8
- Relative district lean
- D+12.7
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- D+2.4
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- D+21.0
- Full fundamentals
- D+24.6
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 50.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±10.5 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Every district
All 9 Massachusetts districts
| District | Matchup | Rating | Model margin | Chance of winning | Polling average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA-01 | Richard Neal D vs. No Republican nominee R D incumbent | Solid D | D+26.4 | D 99.4% · R 0.6% | No district polls |
| MA-02 | Jim McGovern D vs. No Republican nominee R D incumbent | Solid D | D+36.2 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| MA-03 | Lori Trahan D vs. Gary Grossi R D incumbent | Solid D | D+31.9 | D 99.9% · R 0.1% | No district polls |
| MA-04 | Jake Auchincloss D vs. Tom Stalcup R D incumbent | Solid D | D+32.7 | D 99.9% · R 0.1% | No district polls |
| MA-05 | Katherine Clark D vs. No Republican nominee R D incumbent | Solid D | D+57.4 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| MA-06 | Dan Koh D vs. Micah Jones R Open | Solid D | D+30.8 | D 99.9% · R 0.1% | No district polls |
| MA-07 | Ayanna Pressley D vs. No Republican nominee R D incumbent | Solid D | D+76.3 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| MA-08 | Stephen Lynch D vs. Robert Burke R D incumbent | Solid D | D+45.7 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| MA-09 | Bill Keating D vs. R. Tyler MacAllister R D incumbent | Solid D | D+24.6 | D 98.8% · R 1.2% | No district polls |