Updated October 18, 2026 · polls through October 14, 2026 · House model v0.25
Maryland House Forecast
‹ See all House racesMaryland elects 8 members of the U.S. House. The COYNTOSS model rates 7 districts as favoring Democrats, 1 as favoring Republicans.
Delegation outlook
Democrats lead in 7 of 8 districts
Forecast summary
- Seats
- 8
- Toss-ups
- 0
- Not rated Solid
- 1
- Districts with polls
- 1 of 8
- Closest district
- MD-01 R+13.4
District map
Maryland congressional districts
Shaded by forecast rating. Select a district to see its forecast.
Loading district boundaries…
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2026 congressional districts, clipped to the shoreline. Methodology.
Races to watch
Districts not rated Solid, closest model margin first. Bars show each side's published chance of winning. Every district is listed below.
MD-01 · R incumbent
Maryland's 1st District
Schwartz 6.1% · Harris 93.9% chance of winning
- Model margin
- R+13.4
- Rating
- Likely R
- Polling average
- R+13.0
- Fundamentals
- R+12.1
- Matchup
- Dan Schwartz vs. Andy Harris
How the forecast is built
Polling blend (published): 11.1%
Fundamentals inputs
- 2024 presidential margin
- R+16.9
- Relative district lean
- R+16.5
- Generic ballot
- D+8.3
- National environment
- D+8.3
- Incumbency
- R+2.4
- Candidate
- None
- Fundraising
- None
- Simple fundamentals
- R+8.2
- Full fundamentals
- R+12.1
- Fundamentals blend weight
- 50.0%
- Total uncertainty
- ±8.6 pts
Margins are Democratic minus Republican points, rounded to one decimal. Values are shown as published; the page does not recompute the forecast.
Every district
All 8 Maryland districts
| District | Matchup | Rating | Model margin | Chance of winning | Polling average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MD-01 | Dan Schwartz D vs. Andy Harris R R incumbent | Likely R | R+13.4 | D 6.1% · R 93.9% | R+13.0 1 poll |
| MD-02 | Johnny Olszewski D vs. Dave Wallace R D incumbent | Solid D | D+30.7 | D 99.8% · R 0.2% | No district polls |
| MD-03 | Sarah Elfreth D vs. Berney Flowers R D incumbent | Solid D | D+35.0 | D 99.9% · R 0.1% | No district polls |
| MD-04 | Glenn Ivey D vs. George McDermott R D incumbent | Solid D | D+88.1 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| MD-05 | Adrian Boafo D vs. Chris Chaffee R Open | Solid D | D+43.8 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| MD-06 | April McClain Delaney D vs. Robin Ficker R D incumbent | Solid D | D+18.3 | D 96.0% · R 4.0% | No district polls |
| MD-07 | Kweisi Mfume D vs. Scott Collier R D incumbent | Solid D | D+73.7 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
| MD-08 | Jamie Raskin D vs. Cheryl Riley R D incumbent | Solid D | D+69.7 | D >99.9% · R <0.1% | No district polls |
Polling inputs
District polls
1 included survey across 1 district, newest first.
| Field dates | District | Pollster | Sample | Results |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23–Jul 27, 2026 | MD-01 | Z to A Research | 482.0 LV | D 39.0% · R 52.0% |